Daily Brief Financials: Mizuho Financial Group, JPY, S&P 500, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Pro, Fantasia Holdings Group Co and more

• Japanese Banks have had a good run recently. From the day before the BOJ changed the 10yr yield target in December in its YCC programme to today, +30% vs TOPIX.
• The question is how that is spread out. There are lots of banks. Some are cheaper than others. Some are better than others. Can we draw conclusions to trade better?
• If you are looking at Japanese Banks to play a change in BOJ policy when Governor Kuroda’s term ends shortly, there are definitely conclusions one can draw. I offer comments.

• Markets price more than 35 bps ahead of the BoJ meeting. Is that too much?
• BoJ is not scared of inflation. They fear a lack of market functioning in JGB markets.
• JPY may be overbought into the meeting, while USTs are oversold

• Adjusted our SPX resistance level given overshoots with a focus on SPX futures trendline at 4,080 and price pivot at 4,100.
• We will take this week to measure overbought conditions and sentiment. Near term upside risk to SPX trendline that defines the LT trend.
• We have not given up on our macro bear cycle as long as trendline caps. Fine tuning top signals is the chore at hand.

• DCG’s subsidiary Genesis is likely to become the next insolvent crypto lender,  market fears its failure will lead to the dissolving of Grayscale, which held 3% of bitcoin’s total supply;
• Grayscale is a profitable business with $200 million annual fee income from the GBTC trust, DCG or any new buyer of Grayscale has no intention to dissolve the cash cow;
• Even if Grayscale dissolve, it won’t cause another crash as only $1 billion value of bitcoin may be dumped into the market, only 3.3% of bitcoin daily trading volume;

• Price Movements: Bullish sentiment has returned to crypto, with BTC up 20% over the past week.
• Market Liquidity: Binance.US’s market share relative to other U.S. exchanges climbed to 15%, a marked increase after dropping to 6% post-FTX.  
• Derivatives: BTC open interest fell sharply after a short squeeze caused millions in liquidations.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Azure Power Global Ltd
• China Hongqiao
• Fantasia Holdings Group Co
• Fosun International