Daily Brief Financials: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG), Nikkei 225, Lendlease Global Commercial REIT, HDFC Bank, EURO/US DOLLAR, USD and more

• A few days ago, the TSE announced a “name-and-shame” list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】
• That translates to “Action to Implement Management That is Conscious of Cost of Capital and Stock Price”. The TSE asked companies in Mar-2023 to formulate and disclose a policy. 
• Some have. Some have not. The TSE made a list. They will update the list every month. However, their list is wholly inadequate, so we made it better. 

• The seasonal matrix indicates a possibility for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) to continue its current rally into April and that rally should end in May.
• The index at the moment is very overbought, we expect some form of WEEKLY pullback soon, please consult our previous insight to find the WEEKLY resistance levels.
• The pullback should be seen as a WEEKLY pullback within a larger, longer MONTHLY (multi-month) uptrend, i.e. an opportunity to buy and/or add positions at better prices.

• A Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Lendlease Global: Sustainable Returns Through High-Quality Assets revealed a global commercial REIT with high-quality retail and office properties in Singapore and Italy.
• LREIT saw rental reversions of +16.3% YoY in its 1Q2024 with a portfolio committed occupancy of 99.9% and a weighted average lease expiry of 8.0 years by NLA.
• Management remains optimistic about the coming year with a strong capital position, a high level of sustainably linked finance, a low cost of debt, and an eye on potential acquisitions.

• Due to the ongoing earnings season, for the next couple of weeks, we will temporarily deviate from our regular format and instead focus on reported earnings.
• HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) – The core concerns that worry the street do warrant attention. While the management believes it is temporary, we anticipate some more incremental pain ahead. 
• Other interesting names highlighted include Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN), IndiaMart (INMART IN), Polycab India (POLYCAB IN), and Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN). 

• The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.
• The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.
• The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.

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• The market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, but the data does not fully support this expectation.
• The dollar has performed well this week, and further upside is plausible due to low-grade US exceptionalism and underwhelming global economic data.
• The focus on the Fed and US rates is important, but the non-US side should not be overlooked, as there is a stark difference in initial conditions between the US and other G7 rate curves. The rate differentials could lead to a convergence with the US catching up to other rate curves, resulting in a volatile and high-impact dollar trend.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.