Daily Brief Financials: Link REIT, Japan Post Bank, Indusind Bank, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, HSBC Holdings PLC, Goldman Sachs Group, Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint Stock Bank, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, Cenkos Securities, Lippo Karawaci and more

• The Link REIT (823 HK) rights offering caused some upset amongst investors. They got dilution where they did not need it, and de-leveraging from a REIT wanting to invest.
• The units fell in price, then fell some more. Then the rights started trading.
• Last week in Link REIT (823) – Nil Paid Rights Start Trading Tomorrow – The Trades I said strategy was to be long by Tuesday or Wednesday. It’s Wednesday.

• The near-term Supply/Demand Balance is helped or hurt – depending on how well the deal has been placed to retail, by overseas bank turmoil. 
• Quality of placement to retail is tough to know from outside. We have near-term offsets with both index demand and dividend looming.
• The biggest near-term differentiator in possible supply/demand outcomes is, of course, in the hands of the TSE Index team. And we just don’t know.

• Indusind Bank (IIB IN) ‘s shares saw a sharp fall of 7% on Monday.
• The fact that RBI shortened the tenure of MD & CEO to two years baffled the market. 
• Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been seen earlier also for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency, hence investors should not be too worried.

• Market participants are re-repricing risk, says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.
• Policymakers are in a tough spot where they need to combat inflation while also providing liquidity for the banking sector.
• iShares are once again in the spotlight as market participants are Re-re pricing risk.

• HSBC Holdings plc agrees to acquire SVB Financial Group’s UK-based business for merely £1.
• HSBC stock’s current risks pertain to a newly evolved countercyclical environment and mainstream’s “flight to safety” instead of potential structural breaks within the firm.
• In a drastic turn of events, HSBC Holdings plc (OTCPK:HBCYF) has snapped up SVB Financial Group’s (NASDAQ:SIVB) UK lending division.

• Despite its robust asset base, a structural break in the economy might tilt The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.’s fortunes.
• The “bird in hand” dividend theory might phase out some of Goldman’s pro-cyclical risk.
• However, a scenario analysis paints an unsightly appearance.

• The Vietnamese banks should be partially shielded from the market fallout due to Silicon Valley Bank given the bank system’s lack of integration with the global financial system
• We are selective in our stock picks, given the investment climate and the challenges to capital adequacy for a number of banks; we also assess the banks’ deposit ratios
• We recommend shareholders to switch out of Vietcombank into Techcombank given its very modest valuations, attractive PEG and its strong capital ratio; VP Bank is one to watch

• The strong travel demand in Jan. and Feb. had pushed up the industry-wide ADR nearing the 2019 level due the temporary hotel shortage, Atour especially benefited from the trend . 
• Except the positive industry trend, we think the releasing of requisitioned hotels and the expansion of Atour Light are the near-term catalyst for Atour. 
• We maintain the BUY rating and raise TP by US$1.5 to US$36.5

The much-reduced level of capital markets activity in 2022 meant sharply lower profitability for Cenkos, although control over fixed costs and reduced variable compensation provided some mitigation. The group continued to focus on client service, gained share in AIM fund-raising (to 15%), has made net additions to its client base and, supported by a strong balance sheet, has made selective staff hires to strengthen its capabilities.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Delta Dunia Makmur
• Lippo Karawaci