In today’s briefing:
- EQD | The “Landing Area” For The KOSPI 200 Is In Sight
- [Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]: Strong 11.11 Sales Recalibrate E-Commerce Potential
- CPKF: Third Quarter Net Earnings on Target Raising Estimates
- Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – October 14, 2024
- GBLI: Global Indemnity announces strong 3rd quarter 2024 financial and operating results which were better than our expectations.
- DEFTF: 3Q24 EPS as Expected Ongoing Business Model Evolution
- BENF: F2Q25 Earnings – Improving Financial Performance Pivoting to Growth
EQD | The “Landing Area” For The KOSPI 200 Is In Sight
- In a previous insight, on Oct 26th, we theorized 2 possible scenarios: a rally or a mini-crash for the KOSPI 200 INDEX, from the following week.
- It looks like we are more in the mini-crash scenario (see chart below), at the moment, but the index is already very oversold according to our WEEKLY model.
- Keep reading to find out where to buy based on our MRM WEEKLY models for the KOSPI 200.
[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]: Strong 11.11 Sales Recalibrate E-Commerce Potential
- Based on Atour (ATAT)’s strong pillow sales in 11.11, we raised C4Q24/2025 revenue estimate by 6.9%/7.1%. Our number is now 7.9%/15% higher than consensus;
- The outstanding performance of the retail business may draw more consumer attention to the brand, thus bring contribute to Atour’s hotel expansion.
- We raise the TP by US$1 to US$37/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.
CPKF: Third Quarter Net Earnings on Target Raising Estimates
- We are increasing our diluted EPS estimate for 2024 by $0.02, from $2.30 to $2.32, an 8% gain from 2023’s actual diluted EPS of $2.15, and our diluted EPS estimate for 2025 from $2.40 per share to $2.45 per share, representing a 6% gain over our 2024 estimate.
- We expect good gains in net interest income in 2024 and 2025 as solid loan growth, estimated at 8% in both 2024 and 2025, will be aided by improving prospects for CPKF’s net interest margin (NIM).
- We have raised our net interest margin estimate for 2024 by 4 basis points from 3.45% to 3.49% and our 2025 NIM estimate by 2 basis points from 3.50% to 3.52%, up 3 basis points from our 2024 estimate.
Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – October 14, 2024
- During the period under consideration, i.e. September 12th, 2024, to October 14th, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.
- In the beginning, it faced a general increase, until September 26th where the pair faced a sharp decrease.
- After that, it fluctuated sideways in a slight but steady downward momentum, and by the end of the period the price traded at a lower level than September 12th.
GBLI: Global Indemnity announces strong 3rd quarter 2024 financial and operating results which were better than our expectations.
- Global Indemnity Group, LLC, provides specialty and niche insurance products nationwide.
- GBLI focuses on small market property and casualty business.
- The company has made a concerted effort to reduce its property exposure.
DEFTF: 3Q24 EPS as Expected Ongoing Business Model Evolution
- Key 3Q24 takeaways include: 1) recent company launches (SolFi Technologies and CoreFi Strategy) and the acquisition of Stillman Digital further diversifies DEFTF’s platform, thereby enhancing the pace and sustainability of growth, we believe 2) senior executives remained focused on broadening Valour’s footprint, with plans to offer 100 products by the end of 2025 across additional markets including Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and the U.S. and
- 3) management is increasingly tapping rising profitability to strengthen the company’s financial position and build treasury reserve digital assets to mitigate the effects of inflation and generate higher yields on excess liquidity.
- While we edged down our 2025 EPS estimate, our price target remains unchanged at $4.00 reflecting a lower risk profile given ongoing initiatives to further diversify businesses/revenues, thereby driving a more sustainable growth profile.
BENF: F2Q25 Earnings – Improving Financial Performance Pivoting to Growth
- Key F2Q25 takeaways include: 1) origination volumes seem set to ramp up reflecting rising demand for liquidity in light of ongoing growth in alternative assets under management and Beneficient’s comprehensive go-to-market strategy spanning multiple clients, distribution channels, and approaches 2) the recently announced transaction reclassified $126 million of temporary equity to permanent equity, thereby meaningfully strengthening BENF’s balance sheet and 3) GWG Wind Down Trust’s BENF position down to 348,183 shares, thus enhancing supply/demand trading dynamics for the stock and removing a technical overhang.
- In our minds, the stock’s YTD underperformance provides investors with an attractive entry point for BENF as awareness and appreciation of the company’s business model, growth prospects, unique positioning, and valuation disconnect increasingly take hold.
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