In today’s briefing:
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE
- Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis
- EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Central Banks Decide
- Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) Banks, Real Estate, Telcos, and Big ETF Sales
Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE
- The Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) ratio looks more attractive as JPB climbs with other banks as the possibility of Offering-induced retail overhang increases.
- The ACCC has until 28 September 2023 to make its decision on Origin Energy (ORG AU). Expect ACCC to be supportive – they haven’t built a strong “against” case.
- There should be more for the Kenedix REIT complex on a fundamental basis, a future equity capital raise accretion basis, and because of significant net buying for index purposes.
Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis
- Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 48,052 won which is within the IPO price range of 39,500 won to 51,800 won.
- Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a negative view of this deal.
- We are not impressed with the company’s lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit in 2023. The valuation range as proposed by the bankers is also not attractive.
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Central Banks Decide
- Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
- Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
- We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces
Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) Banks, Real Estate, Telcos, and Big ETF Sales
- This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
- The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
- We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw RMB 15bn+ of net selling. That’s six weeks in a row of respectably large outflows.
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