In today’s briefing:
- Japan Post Holdings To Effectively “Re-IPO” Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)
- HSBC – Dangling The Dividend
- Japan Post Bank Possible Placement – Here We Go Again with the US$9bn Overhang
- US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)
Japan Post Holdings To Effectively “Re-IPO” Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)
- Overnight a Reuters article suggested Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) had started talks to sell a near 30%) stake in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), the first sale since IPO.
- A sale is designed with two aims: 1) the TSE requires a 35% tradable share ratio, and 2) JPH is supposed to lower holdings in JPB to <50% by 2025.
- This event may include a buyback, and has moving parts, and flows on the back end, but fundamentally a sale would effectively constitute a “re-IPO” of the shares.
HSBC – Dangling The Dividend
- Operating costs moved to USD8.9bn in 4Q22 from USD8.0bn in 3Q22
- Continued high growth in QoQ credit costs up 33% QoQ in 4Q22
- Net fee income seems to be shrinking about USD100m quarterly
Japan Post Bank Possible Placement – Here We Go Again with the US$9bn Overhang
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) is looking to trim its stake in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) by a third, as per Reuters.
- The deal would be worth around US$9bn and could come as soon as next month.
- In this note, we talk about the news and take an early look at the possible selldown.
US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)
- At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
- USGG10YR traded in a perfectly structured downtrend from 1981 to 2020. This downtrend was clearly broken in Q2 2022, confirming a dominant multi-year uptrend.
- A mere 38.2% retracement of the 1981/2020 downtrend targets 6.24 in the coming 1-2 years. This is our big picture outlook. February may confirm the next leg in this uptrend.
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