In today’s briefing:
- EQD | FXI – Buy January Straddle
- Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Jan25), TSE Updates
- Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds
- EQD | HSI – Buy January Straddle
- DLocal: A Payments Pioneer Exploring New Frontiers Amid Potential Sale Talks!
EQD | FXI – Buy January Straddle
- The implied move for January is considerably less than what has been experienced historically.
- January punches above its weight in terms of both historic volatility (most volatile month) and the amount of price movement relative to that historic volatility.
- 71% of the last 21 January’s have had a larger absolute return for the month than the current implied move of 5.7%. Average January move has been 8.62%.
Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Jan25), TSE Updates
- TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
- 609 new CGRs were filed since 31-Nov-2024. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
- A surprising number of smaller companies have yet to file a MCoCC/SP Awareness report. As cross-holdings get sold down, I expect they will become activists targets in 2025.
Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds
- The biggest event in 2024 which will impact rates in 2025 is perhaps the victory of Donald Trump, who promised to cut taxes and raise tariffs.
- We do not believe the US economy could continue to grow at 3% annually with expectation of a recession in 2026. For 2025, we see declining consumption and sticky inflation.
- Elevated rates are positive on fixed rate USD bonds as long as there is no rate hike of which we believe for 2025.
EQD | HSI – Buy January Straddle
- The implied move for January is less than what has been historically experienced. Twenty of the last 27 years have had price movement > current implied move.
- January punches above its weight in terms of both historic volatility (most volatile month) and the amount of price movement relative to that historic volatility.
- January is one of the most volatility months of the year, only October having a higher average historic volatility
DLocal: A Payments Pioneer Exploring New Frontiers Amid Potential Sale Talks!
- DLocal, a leading Latin American payments provider with a market value of $3.6 billion, is reportedly exploring a potential sale.
- The Montevideo, Uruguay-based company, backed by private equity firm General Atlantic, is working with Morgan Stanley to evaluate interest from private equity firms and major fintech players.
- This development marks the second time DLocal has been linked to sale discussions, following a similar evaluation last year that did not culminate in an agreement.
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