In today’s briefing:
- India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
- Block Deal Sale Of 2.3% Stake in Woori Financial and Highlights of Its Corporate Value Up Program
- Nasdaq (NDAQ): $2.7bn Offering’s Global Index Implications
- Global FX & Economics: Yen-maggedon
- Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
- Crypto Crisp: Short-term Patience
- Will History Rhyme?
- MOO: Tier-1 Assets, Tier-1 Jurisdiction, and a Critical Metal
- Hardman & Co Arbuthnot Banking Group (ARBB): 1H’24 – optimising the franchise value
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India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
- Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-March.
- The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
- Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 12 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could see passive outflows in August.
Block Deal Sale Of 2.3% Stake in Woori Financial and Highlights of Its Corporate Value Up Program
- On 30 July, it was reported that IMM Private Equity (PE) sold a 2.3% stake (16.78 million shares) of Woori Financial Group (WFG), which was worth 264 billion won.
- Block deal sale price was 15,737 won (0.4% higher than current price). Today’s block deal sale represents a second block deal sale of Woori Financial by IMM PE in 2024.
- Under the mid-to-long term Value Up program, Woori Financial Group aims to achieve a sustainable ROE of 10% and total shareholder returns of 50%.
Nasdaq (NDAQ): $2.7bn Offering’s Global Index Implications
- The size of the offering is expected to trigger intra-quarter implementations for both main global indices to be announced on 30 July and become effective 1 August.
- Free float increase is estimated to take place due to Thoma Bravo – Nasdaq’s major strategic shareholder – offering almost half of its stake equivalent to ~$2.7bn.
- Total forecasted passive fund demand is ~5.3m shares, ~$368m and ~1.8 ADV. It is expected to materialize at close of 1 August 2024.
Global FX & Economics: Yen-maggedon
- Historical analysis suggests that previous lows in yen or highs in dollar yen may be difficult to recapture after significant technical damage.
- The yen strength is influenced by wide US minus Japan real policy rate differentials, skewing historical results in a more yen bearish direction.
- Expectations for the upcoming BOJ meeting include a 15 basis point rate hike and a halving of bond purchases, leading to dispersion of views among investors on the timing of rate hikes.
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Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
- Net operating revenue: JPY9.4bn (+14.8% YoY; -5.0% QoQ), Operating profit: JPY4.2bn (+17.8% YoY; -2.8% QoQ).
- Total commissions: JPY5.2bn (+7.6% YoY; -16.7% QoQ), Brokerage commissions: JPY4.9bn (+7.2% YoY; -17.4% QoQ).
- SG&A expenses: JPY5.2bn (+12.4% YoY; -6.7% QoQ), Personnel expenses: JPY976mn (+12.2% YoY; +4.8% QoQ).
Crypto Crisp: Short-term Patience
- In recent weeks, Bitcoin has shown signs of life, almost reaching $70,000 this morning.
- In our view, it is only a matter of time before we break through this psychological level.
- Enough about Bitcoin. As promised in last week’s Crypto Moves #36, this Crypto Crisp will focus on Ethereum ETFs.
Will History Rhyme?
- BTC’s July surge highlights market volatility and potential Q3 consolidation.
- Spot ETF launches drive significant crypto inflows, influencing market dynamics.
- Upcoming token unlocks could impact market liquidity and trading conditions.
MOO: Tier-1 Assets, Tier-1 Jurisdiction, and a Critical Metal
- Moon River recently announced a highly economic PEA on its Davidson Project in B.C., the highest-grade molybdenum project outside of China.
- The acquisition of a 25% stake in the Endako Project reduces single asset risk, providing MOO with $2M in working capital, $40M for maintenance and reclamation costs, as well as providing interest income to cover corporate G&A, offering substantial upside for the Company.
- Moon River looks to take advantage of a booming molybdenum market.
Hardman & Co Arbuthnot Banking Group (ARBB): 1H’24 – optimising the franchise value
- ABG’s 1H’24 results showed the group’s continued evolution to optimise its franchise value.
- 2023 saw the peak benefits from ABG’s relationship deposit franchise in the recent rising rate environment.
- Margins could be widened while still giving customers competitive products.