Daily Brief Financials: Hang Lung Properties, M & T Bank Corp, GAM Holding AG, Agricultural Bank Of China, Yanlord Land and more

• Hong Kong retail sales strongly rebounded 41% yoy in March
• During May Day Holiday (Apr 29 – May 3), there was 625k mainland visitors to Hong Kong, around 63% of pre-COVID level
• Among all RE sub-sectors, retail and residential will be the first to recover (already seeing recovery), office will be lagging and the last. 

• Deposit outflows for 1Q23 in the most affected of the mid-sized US banks were in low double digits, much less severe than the deposit collapse suffered by First Republic
• In fact, since the end of 1Q23, some smaller banks have reported slightly positive deposit flows, and the recent usage of Fed and FHLB funding lines is not alarming
• We review a select group of mid-sized US banks focusing in on a number of key metrics; despite the challenging times, we like M&T Bank and Western Alliance

• Liontrust is offering 0.0589 of its own shares per share of fallen angel GAM (which had CHF132 billion AuM by end 2020 vs CHF 23.3 billion now).
• Although the GAM brand arguably retains some value, Liontrust is being somehow genereous, in my view. My fair value estimate (multiples based) is CHF 0.58/share.
• Gross spread is +16.4%. I wouldn’t get involved right now, because spread is positive, there is risk of a legal challenge and next results are likely to be ugly.

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
• The LT downtrend structure in 1288 HK was simply defined by its 2018/2022 sequence of lower highs and lower lows. This structure was broken last week.  
• LT momentum indicators (monthly RSI / MACD) have recently confirmed this bullish LT trend change. The current uptrend appears set to extend towards 3.60/3.90 (+13%-24%) in the coming 2-3 quarters.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Greentown China
• Vedanta Resources
• Yanlord Land