Daily Brief Financials: DGB Financial Group, NU Holdings Ltd, K3 Capital Group, Bitcoin, Agile Property Holdings, Goldman Sachs Group, Metlife Inc, Intercontinental Exchange and more

• With JB Financial Group gone for Meritz Fire, the next one in line will enter KOSPI 200 in place of Meritz Securities. And the lucky one is DGB Financial.
• DGB can expect an inflow of 8.23x ADTV and will face a 2.8x ADTV in one day on March 31.
• Given the size of the preemptive flow that JB Financial is currently attracting, we should prepare for DBG to start receiving a similar level of price impact earlier than usual.

• Fintechs and neobanks suffered a valuations reality check in 2022, due to rising interest (and discount) rates, poor fundamental results coupled with – in certain cases – high cash burn
• Most neobanks need to improve customer activity rates as well as product and revenue penetration; legacy banks are responding to disruptors and in developed markets megafintechs are encroaching on neobanks
• We see 2023 neobank picks driven by bottom-up calls on focused execution; we turn constructive on Nubank, stay negative on Inter and Jago and neutral on Kakaobank and Banco PAN

• Sun Capital offers 350p/share for K3, 10.7x EV/NTM EBITDA, lower than median of peers at 11.3x and lower than my DCF-based estimate of 404.7p (implied 12.4x EV/NTM EBITDA).
• In spite of the underwhelming figure, the deal is likely to go ahead: top shareholders/managers (30.4%) will contribute to Bidco, and irrevocables total 10%. Court/GM meetings are on 26 January.
• Gross spread is 0.71%. Assuming it all goes smoothly, the estimated annual return assuming settlement by 28 February is 7%. Long.

• In six years, stablecoins have grown from making up just 1.5% of BTC trade volume relative to fiat currencies such as the Dollar or Euro, to more than 87%.
• This has been matched with an explosion in market capitalization for the three largest centralized stablecoins: Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and Binance USD (BUSD).
• The three had a combined market cap of $10bn in May 2020, the start of DeFi Summer.

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

• Goldman Sachs’ business model is not aligned to benefit from an elevated interest rate environment.
• The bank’s trading segment could pivot, but Goldman’s investment banking prospects remain gloomy.
• The firm’s stock presents reasonable valuation and dividend metrics, but they might not be enough to convince investors, analysts say.

• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is one of the largest providers of provider of market infrastructure, data services and technology solutions in the world.
• In ICE’s equity derivatives complex, the ADV in its MSCI complex has been rising as the volatility levels in the market have grown.
• Recurring revenues of the company have been increasing, driven by robust demand for the company’s energy exchange data rendering strong future foreseeability.

• This is our first report on insurance behemoth, MetLife.
• The company’s business has been negatively impacted by various macroeconomic trends such as the equity market falling, the interest rate rise, and the rising probability of a recession.
• However, MetLife continued to execute its Next Horizon Strategy which helps show some resilience in uncertainty.

• This is our first report on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), one of the largest providers of provider of market infrastructure, data services and technology solutions in the world.
• In ICE’s equity derivatives complex, the ADV in its MSCI complex was up as the volatility levels continued rising.
• Recurring revenues increased, driven by robust demand for the company’s energy exchange data as well as the continued benefit from its record 2021 listings performance.