Daily Brief Financials: Country Garden Holdings Co, Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa, China SCE, Sino-Ocean Group, MSCI Inc, Pakuwon Jati, S&U PLC and more

Country Garden has released its FY 2022 results, with revenue and earnings declines as well as margin contraction. Reported debt decreased. EBITDA/Interest and Debt/EBITDA weakened significantly, but Net Debt/Net Property Assets remained sound. In December, the company received HKD 4.74 bn (c. USD 609 mn) from a private placement of 1.78 bn shares, with the funds primarily to be used for offshore debt commitments.

We are not surprised by Country Garden’s poor earnings performance in FY 2022, given that it had been a dire year for the Chinese property industry. We view positively the company’s repayment of debts due in 2022, despite difficulties in property sales and cash collection.

We remain cautious about the likelihood that management can achieve its goal of increasing Country Garden’s market share in higher-tier cities. We also continue to be highly concerned over the recovery trajectory for the group’s margins and property sales in FY 2023, considering the relatively large portion of existing inventory in Tier 3 and 4 cities compared to peers.

• Concentrix has signed a deal to merge with Webhelp (unlisted) in a cash and shares deal worth roughly $4.8 billion, including net debt. Webhelp is 59.15% owned by GBL.
• GBL obtains €1,787 million (vs. €1,721 million last valuation). GBL doesn’t miss on a good deal, even momentarily reversing the trend of increasing share of private assets in portfolio.
• The discount, albeit recently tightening, stays at a high level, 36.9%, despite the good deal and higher portfolio visibility and cash holdings.

SCE’s FY 2022 results were as expected, with sustained weakness in contracted sales and revenue, along with weaker margins. Going forward, management’s strategy includes progressing steadily to deal with the volatility in the industry. The delivery of projects will be a key objective, in order to maintain homebuyer confidence.

Sino-Ocean’s FY 2022 results were very weak. The decline in property sales revenue and profitability did not come as a surprise, given the moribund state of the property industry. The CNY 4.8 bn increase in gross debt and CNY 5.2 bn write-down on financial investments were, however, somewhat unexpected. These reflect very poorly on management and, needless to say, there have been no changes of note in this regard.

• Whatever one calls it – a boom-going-bust, a bubble bursting, a market correcting – the ESG party that has raged for years appears to be winding down for certain investors.
• Some partygoers have over-indulged in the ESG Kool-Aid, and regulators have the perfect elixir to sober them up – new and often confusing “anti-greenwashing” investing regulations.
• Particularly consequential for indexed ESG funds.  Index providers and asset managers struggle to comply, evidenced by recent methodology changes, reconstitutions, and fund closings.

Pakuwon Jati’s (PWON) FY 2022 results were acceptable. This was despite the company missing its pre-sales and earnings targets, given the sharp deterioration in the operating environment in H2 on the back of a steep rise in interest rates. Growth in y-o-y revenue, earnings and cash-flow was expected, given the COVID-19 lockdowns in FY 2021. Positively, the balance sheet remains in great shape, with net cash and no short-term debt. The company has the best credit profile among the companies under our Indonesian real estate coverage, and is the only one that has not carried out any bond tender offer below par. PWON has the best quality portfolio of retail assets and the highest portion of recurrent rental income among peers.

As a specialist lender, S&U is sensitive to the economic background, but in its main motor finance business it has a strong track record of managing and growing through bumpy conditions. The newer property bridging business is maturing and shares a focus on customer service and a conservative underwriting approach. This provides the group with a sound basis for sustainable long-term growth.