In today’s briefing:
- China Renaissance (1911 HK): Loss of Face
- USDCNH: What Month End Close Will Confirm a Sustainable Multi-Month Uptrend with a 7.10/7.20 Target?
- Dollar’O’Meter – Continued USD Weakening Ahead Based on Our Probability Weighted Models
- BLUR’s Big Debut
- RVT: Swap Growth For Small-Cap Value Stocks To Combat Inflation
China Renaissance (1911 HK): Loss of Face
- China Renaissance (1911 HK) was once touted as a “leading investment bank and asset manager dedicated to the new economy“. At the time of its 1Q21 post-IPO high, it was.
- Late last Thursday, the 16 February, CR said it was unable to contact (hours, days, weeks?) Bao Fan, its chairman, CEO, and controlling shareholder. Shares subsequently fell 28%.
- Bao is the face of CR and instrumental in client dealing and complex large-scale deal making. Clarification is recommended before investors dip their toe back in the water.
USDCNH: What Month End Close Will Confirm a Sustainable Multi-Month Uptrend with a 7.10/7.20 Target?
- At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
- USDCNH has delivered a most positive response to key Fibonacci support at 6.7143. February has the potential to confirm a renewed and sustainable multi-month uptrend.
- A February month end close above 6.9213 will provide such confirmation and target 7.10/7.20 on a multi-month basis.
Dollar’O’Meter – Continued USD Weakening Ahead Based on Our Probability Weighted Models
- Our Dollar’O’Meter hints of further USD weakness on the cards in coming months
- Relative liquidity, relative inflation and relative forward interest rates suggest a weaker USD
- The outlook for the USD is a bit more muddy in H2-2023, but we remain negative for now
BLUR’s Big Debut
- Price Movements: Huobi listed a token representing a claim on FTX’s debt, which briefly surged to as high as $100 before crashing to $13.
- Market Liquidity: Coinbase trade volume is increasingly outpacing Uniswap’s, suggesting traders still prefer CEXs.
- Derivatives: BTC open interest remains flat despite heavy volatility.
RVT: Swap Growth For Small-Cap Value Stocks To Combat Inflation
- Royce Value Trust is ideally placed to benefit from a change in market risk attribution.
- The fund’s IR ratio suggests its managers provide value for money.
- In addition, the CEF’s fee structures are favorable.
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