In today’s briefing:
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024): Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As – Time To Get Long H/A
- Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024): Big NB Buy Friday
- Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Credentials Remain Intact
- EQD | Nikkei’s Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)
A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024): Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As – Time To Get Long H/A
- The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
- SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. 20 days straight net buying. NORTHBOUND saw big inflows Friday. A record day I believe.
- HK stocks bounced VERY hard. Seemed like big allocation trade. HSCEI +8.7% vs CSI300 +1.2%. In H/A Pairs, liquid pairs saw Hs outperform their A by 4+% on average.
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024): Big NB Buy Friday
- The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
- Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 25+bn of A-shares on low gross volume but a huge Friday playing catchup to a massive up-week in HK shares.
- H outperformed As and it feels like the massive day Friday was just to play reversion on underperformance vs HK shares.
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Credentials Remain Intact
- Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) surprised with a strong set of 1Q2024 numbers driven by unseasonably strong loan growth coupled with continuing growth in CASA, helping to underpin NIMs.
- Loan growth was driven by corporate loans with investment loans outpacing working capital loans together with SME loans and consumer loans, especially mortgages, autos, and personal loans.
- Digital banking initiatives drove customer numbers and transactions, whilst improving operating efficiencies. Credit costs continue to come down with falling loans at risk. Valuations remain high but credentials remain intact.
EQD | Nikkei’s Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)
- The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is closing the month of April in negative territory, first month down after 3 months up.
- Our seasonal model indicates that May could also close down, but the index should find strong support in the 37770-36750 price area.
- The month of May is a coin flip: the index could close up or down, caution is advised.
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