Daily Brief Financials: China Construction Bank H, NIFTY Index, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Longfor Properties and more

• SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.
• The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
• But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

• IVs for Monthly & Quarterly contracts rose as options market baked in additional risk premia for the Budget Announcement. 
• Vega bid & Gamma offered  – Monthly IVs higher by +2.3 vols & Weekly IVs lower by -0.5 vols.  Short-Dated IVs closed lower in spite of upcoming earnings events 
• Term structure is trading with a kinked shape, with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest of the curve

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
• There have been multiple changes to our expected ADDs/DELs list since our last insight.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd
• JSW Steel Ltd
• Lenovo
• Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
• Tata Steel Thailand