Daily Brief Financials: Bombay Stock Exchange, Hang Seng Index, BFI Finance Indonesia, Bitcoin, Greentown China, Marsh & Mclennan, Princess Private Equity Holdin and more

• SEBI has asked BSE to pay regulatory fees on options trading based on notional turnover instead of premium turnover
• The impact of this would 10-20% on earnings in short term
• The bigger question lies ahead what BSE will do to offset the impact and grow its market share in derivative trading

• If the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), our previous forecast will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).
• The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.
• A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex.

• BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 numbers with improved QoQ bookings, although with some concerns over challenging market conditions slowing the recovery.
• The NPF ratio saw an ongoing improvement, although the cost of capital increased due to higher write-offs from last year’s bookings. Revenue declined due to a shift to lower-risk products. 
• The outlook for BFIN in 2H2024 looks more positive, with the company shifting back to higher-return products and with lower expected credit costs. Valuations are appealing on 1.5x PBV.

• It is no surprise that we have maintained a bullish stance in crypto over the past month, given the uptick in US dollar liquidity and the easing tensions between Israel and Iran.
• Despite these factors, the market adopted a predominantly pessimistic view, highlighted by a negative futures funding rate.
• This suggested to us that the market was misaligned with the outside environment.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Hongqiao
• Greentown China
• Medco Energi
• Yankuang Energy Group

• Based on the latest Q1 2024 financial results of Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc., there are several key highlights presenting a neutral standpoint of the company’s performance.
• Positive aspects include strong underlying revenue growth of 9% and an upswing of 11% in adjusted operating income compared to the prior year.
• The company’s adjusted operating margin expanded by 80 basis points from Q1 2023 and completed $300 million of share repurchases within the quarter.

Princess Private Equity Holding’s (PEY’s) 12-month NAV total return (TR) to end-February 2024 was a modest 0.6% amid low exit activity across private equity (PE) markets. That said, if the pick-up in global M&A volumes witnessed earlier in 2024 continues, it should support PEY’s exit activity. This in turn would translate into improved returns if PEY delivers sizeable uplifts to previous carrying values upon exits, as it has done historically. In this context, we note that PEY has a good pipeline of mature investments that are potentially ripe for sale. PEY’s shares now trade at a 24% discount to NAV versus a 10-year average of 18%.