In today’s briefing:
- Block CEO: Twitter Evolution, Bitcoin and Digital Freedom
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-Feb-2025): HK’s Link REIT Manager Now Offers Private Funds.
- EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
- UniCredit/Commerzbank: Comerzbank’s CMD, Update on Timeline and Challenges
- Grandy House (8999 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
- Korean Banks; Positive Fundamental and Share Price Trends for Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)
- BENF: F3Q25 Earnings – EPS Miss Near-Term Holding Pattern on Growth
- Mercuria Holdings (7347 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update
- Monex Group Inc (8698 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
- Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 13/02/2025

Block CEO: Twitter Evolution, Bitcoin and Digital Freedom
- Jack Dorsey’s interest in understanding what was happening in neighborhoods led him to programming
- The original vision for Twitter was simply to be able to see what friends were doing and share updates
- The development of new features on Twitter, such as replies, hashtags, and retweets, was driven by how people were using the platform and their needs for public conversation and sharing information.
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Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-Feb-2025): HK’s Link REIT Manager Now Offers Private Funds.
- Link REIT’s HK manager is starting a private funds venture in the market, showcasing a new area of investment and growth potential.
- Yanlord is looking to sell a half-stake in an Anson Road project for $240M, indicating a strategic move in their property portfolio.
- Weave Living is expanding its presence in Singapore with 2 new locations, adding a total of 330 units to their portfolio.
EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
- Westpac Banking (WBC AU) is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February.
- Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.
- The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.
UniCredit/Commerzbank: Comerzbank’s CMD, Update on Timeline and Challenges
- Commerzbank’s Strong Standalone Outlook: The bank exceeded 2024 targets, announced a 100% payout ratio by 2028, and aims for €14.2 billion in revenue and 15% RoTE by 2028, reducing the urgency for a sale.
- UniCredit’s Takeover Strategy: UniCredit has secured a 28% synthetic stake in Commerzbank and plans to convert it into equity by mid-2025, with a potential >€20/share bid expected late 2025/early 2026.
- Political and Regulatory Challenges: The German government (12% owner), labor unions, and local politicians oppose the deal, citing financial sovereignty concerns, making a near-term takeover highly uncertain despite UniCredit’s strategic push.
Grandy House (8999 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
- Grandy House’s cumulative Q3 FY03/25 sales reached JPY40.0bn, with operating profit at JPY713mn, and net income at JPY218mn.
- The Real Estate Sales segment saw YoY growth, while Pre-cut Parts faced declines due to weak housing starts.
- Total assets decreased to JPY69.9bn, driven by reduced inventories; total liabilities fell to JPY45.4bn.
Korean Banks; Positive Fundamental and Share Price Trends for Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)
- Our weighted metrics of share valuations, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into an investment valuation matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations
- We stick with Hana Financial for its attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia; there is potential for management to deliver on its Value-Up plan over the medium term
- Woori is the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and its improving pre- and post-provision returns along with efficiency ratio
BENF: F3Q25 Earnings – EPS Miss Near-Term Holding Pattern on Growth
- Key F3Q25 takeaways include: 1) while we expect loan originations to remain limited in the near term, the pending approval of the Public Stockholder Enhancement Transactions likely drives sustainable growth in volumes over time 2) the recently announced acquisition of Mercantial Bank extends the company’s custody services, with a focus on higher-fee digital assets, thereby further diversifying BENF’s revenue base and 3) our lower earnings outlook primarily reflects OpEx generally consistent with F325 run-rates combined with a flatter revenue trajectory, with growth mostly dependent on reaccelerating loan originations.
- While we still see considerable upside potential for the stock over time, we recognize a meaningful upward revaluation likely necessitates sustained growth in loan origination volumes driving an inflection in profitability.
- That said, BENF’s Tangible Book Value (TBV) per share of ~$1.15 likely provides downside support for the stock.
Mercuria Holdings (7347 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update
- Mercuria Investment Co., Ltd. reported a 4.7% YoY decline in operating revenue to JPY5.6bn, with gross profit rising 12.2% YoY.
- Recurring profit decreased 23.9% YoY to JPY1.2bn, affected by increased SG&A expenses and investment losses in fund investments.
- FY12/25 earnings forecast projects operating revenue of JPY6.4–9.1bn and a dividend forecast of JPY22.0 per share.
Monex Group Inc (8698 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
- Consolidated net operating revenue was JPY18.2bn, down 15.0% YoY, up 17.7% QoQ, with commissions received at JPY7.9bn.
- US segment net operating revenue increased 1.8% YoY, decreased 1.1% QoQ, with SG&A expenses at USD59.1mn.
- Crypto Asset segment net trading income rose 121.2% YoY, 140.6% QoQ, with SG&A expenses at JPY6.3bn.
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 13/02/2025
- The Company which designs, manufactures and supplies critical components, modules, systems and associated services to the energy, medical and industrial sectors has today announced that its subsidiary Booth Industries, has secured a new £4.5m contract to supply pressure-rated fire doors for HS2.
- The contract expands upon Booth Industries’ involvement in the HS2 project, following the £36m contract secured in September 2020 to supply cross passage doors for the London-to-West Midlands segment of the route.
- Booth will begin mass production of the cross-passage sliding doorsets in its 600m², production cell during 2025.
