In today’s briefing:
- Through the Fire – Will the Rubber Meet the Road?
- EQD | Hang Seng Index WEEKLY Heavily Oversold: It Can Bounce in 2 Weeks
- UOB – Net Profit Down 1.5% YoY, Credit Costs +126% YoY, Citi Costs ~5% of Profit, Expect Worsening
Through the Fire – Will the Rubber Meet the Road?
- Crypto prices are still tracking our expected cycle trend, and the next big test is whether we see another period of consolidation — or if the breakout is finally near.
- We outline a few notable risks in the near term that may stand in the way of the next crypto uptrend: stagnant liquidity, buyer exhaustion, further tightening in financial conditions
- We don’t see these risks as long-term trends and view any downside volatility as an opportunity to increase exposure to the best assets at even better entry prices.
EQD | Hang Seng Index WEEKLY Heavily Oversold: It Can Bounce in 2 Weeks
- The Hang Seng Index closed last week down at 17172.13 (CC=-1), on Wednesday was trading below the Q3 WEEKLY support, very OVERSOLD from a price perspective.
- When this pattern is encountered, usually the index bounces no later than CC=-3, i.e. after this week or the week after the end of next week.
- The next support area to go LONG is 16534 and the index got quite close to it intraday, at the start of this week: the low was 16879.
UOB – Net Profit Down 1.5% YoY, Credit Costs +126% YoY, Citi Costs ~5% of Profit, Expect Worsening
- UOB (UOB SP) just released their 3Q23 results, with their IR documents attached below. Our interpretation of their numbers is less positive than their own presentation.
- Credit growth is faltering, with worsening NIM in QoQ, and with what appears to be topping out net interest income. Citi integration costs remain an issue.
- Underlying credit metrics with worse recoveries and worse new NPAs are not positive, nor is the 126% rise YoY in credit costs in 3Q23. Will this improve in 4Q23?
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