Daily Brief Financials: Bajaj Housing Finance, Ngern Tid Lor , Topdanmark A/S, Picton Property Income and more

• Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) is looking to raise around US$830m in its upcoming India IPO. 
• BHF is a non-deposit taking housing finance company engaged in mortgage lending since FY18. Its mortgage products include home loans, loans against property, lease rental discounting and developer financing.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• The June 2024 index changes for Thailand’s SET 50 index were announced after market close yesterday (17th June 2024).
• Initially we expected only three changes but after the index methodology was revised in May 2024, we revised our expectations and we had 4 expected ADDs/DELs.
• All 4 expected ADDs/DELs turned out to correct. In this insight, we take a look at our estimation of expected flows and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.

• Sampo Oyj (SAMPO FH), top shareholder (49.5%) of Topdanmark A/S (TOP DC)  is launching a recommended all-share public takeover offer to buyout the minorities (1 TOP = 1.25 SAMPO).
• Despite being a cross-border merger, this deal, focused on scale and cost-cutting, is poised for success given rising costs in the insurance sector due to inflation. 
• My valuation as a takeover target is DKK 352/share, which indicates, in my view, that the offer is fair. Gross spread is 2.4%. I would be long the spread.

Picton Property Income’s 6% increase in the rate of quarterly DPS from Q423 demonstrates an increasing confidence in the outlook for organic income and earnings growth. The occupier market has remained robust and rents have increased across much of Picton’s diversified portfolio. Active asset management, including the repositioning of selected office assets, is unlocking the significant potential embedded in the portfolio.