In today’s briefing:
- Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: These Are The 4 Biggest Challenges Responsible For Our Lack Of Optimism! – Major Drivers
- Crypto Moves #53 – Are Markets Stupid? The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Strikes Again
- EQD | NIFTY 50: State Of The Odds
- [Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: These Are The 4 Biggest Challenges Responsible For Our Lack Of Optimism! – Major Drivers
- Arthur J.
- Gallagher & Company reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing a robust performance across its core segments, Brokerage and Risk Management.
- The company’s revenue growth was impressive at 13%, with organic growth marking 6%.
Crypto Moves #53 – Are Markets Stupid? The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Strikes Again
- In the second edition of Crypto Moves, published almost exactly a year ago, I shared this conviction:“Perhaps the only thing you want to know is: Do we expect the Bitcoin halving to cause a new run?”“The short answer is yes.
- In this edition of Crypto Moves, we assess Bitcoin’s current position in its historical 4-year cycle. The 4-year cycle is fundamentally tied to Bitcoin’s halvings, which occurs roughly every four years and halves the mining block reward.
- This process has now taken place four times, reducing the reward from 50 bitcoins per block to just 3.125 bitcoins per block.
EQD | NIFTY 50: State Of The Odds
- After a period of prolonged sell-off, the NIFTY Index last week found support around the 23263 level and bounced.
- Below we introduce a new “quantitative chart” tool called “QUANTCHARTS“: it displays in a compact format all the information you need to evaluate the probability of trend reversal.
- As you will see the NIFTY Index closed just below the 25% (Q1) probability target, so it has room to rise further in the coming weeks, the CC is supportive.
[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact
- Atour (ATAT) reported C3Q24 revenue 2.3% lower than our estimate but 4.8% higher than consensus. The net income beat our estimate/consensus by 6.6%/9.5%, thanks to disciplined cost controls.
- Although RevPAR weakened in C3Q24 as expected, turnaround is coming already in C4Q24. We also expect moderate RevPAR growth in 2025.
- We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain a TOP BUY on Atour.
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