In today’s briefing:
- Sep24 S&P500 Index Rebal – Two Changes Expected; $6bn One-Way Flow and Two Spinoffs?
- Korea’s New IPO Bookbuilding & Lockup Results Disclosure Rule, Effective from August
- NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Bandhan Bank Facing Double Deletion
- BBVA/Sabadell: Deal Uncertainty Grows After Sabadell’s Results
- Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode
- Global Rates, US Credit: Spreadbites Spreads, Politics, and the Consumer
- Primary Health Properties – Continuing dividend growth
- Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
Sep24 S&P500 Index Rebal – Two Changes Expected; $6bn One-Way Flow and Two Spinoffs?
- The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
- In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
- We expect two regular changes during September. More interestingly, a couple of SP500 members are working on spin-offs which could trigger some high-impact deletions over the next few months.
Korea’s New IPO Bookbuilding & Lockup Results Disclosure Rule, Effective from August
- FSS’s leaked IPO guidelines include new, highly attention-grabbing additions: specifically, the disclosure of extra information from the bookbuilding and lockup results not mentioned in May.
- Institutions submitting prices outside the indicative band must be disclosed by KRX investor type. Additionally, average placed price information for lockup-pledged investors must be disclosed.
- FSS will distribute new IPO guidelines this week and apply them from next month. Major IPOs like K Bank must disclose more detailed bookbuilding and lockup results, impacting trading dynamics.
NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Bandhan Bank Facing Double Deletion
- With the review period nearly complete, Canara Bank (CBK IN) should replace Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) in the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) in September.
- Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV in Canara Bank (CBK IN) while selling over 1 day of ADV in Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN).
- There is a strong possibility of Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) being deleted from a global index in August and that could put the stock under even more pressure.
BBVA/Sabadell: Deal Uncertainty Grows After Sabadell’s Results
- Banco de Sabadell’s Q2 2024 results highlight strong performance, strategic progress, and effective capital management.
- Sabadell is currently trading at a 0.89x P/TBV (vs. 5-y 0.41x average), accurately representing its profitability and RoTE outlook. It is also trading at 7.5x Fwd P/E.
- BBVA’s takeover bid is unlikely to succeed unless BBVA enhances the share exchange ratio or includes some cash. Gross spread (1 BBVA x 4.83 SAB) is just 3.4%.
Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode
- Breadth has expanded significantly in recent weeks with the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above major 2.5-year resistance at $210; $210 is now critical support moving forward.
- Technology/Large-Cap growth/Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has consolidated after getting extended, and with June 12 gap support on QQQ getting filled/breaking today, it appears this pullback is likely to continue.
- The SPX is breaking its 20-day MA. June 12th gap at 5375-5409 is potential support, but it appears a pullback in the SPX and QQQ may be headed to 5191/$449.
Global Rates, US Credit: Spreadbites Spreads, Politics, and the Consumer
- Credit spreads have traded in a tight range despite various market events
- High yield spreads have tightened throughout the month
- Macro factors like growth, inflation, and Fed policies are more important for credit markets than the political environment
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Primary Health Properties – Continuing dividend growth
Primary Health Properties’ (PHP’s) H124 results show continuing earnings and dividend growth, driven by rental income and underpinned by a low cost ratio and significantly fixed borrowing costs. With open market rental growth, covering two-thirds of rent roll, accelerating further, we forecast this to continue through FY26, which would mark 30 years of unbroken dividend growth.
Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
- Revenue increased to JPY5.1bn (+7.3% YoY), with operating profit at JPY1.6bn (+171.7% YoY) and net income at JPY1.1bn (+32.6% YoY).
- Capital gains reached JPY2.5bn (+33.2% YoY), with JPY570mn from listed shares and JPY1.9bn from unlisted shares.
- Total investment in Q1 FY03/25 was JPY9.9bn, with JPY5.7bn for domestic VC investments and JPY4.2bn for the US.