In today’s briefing:
- What We Know Until Now About L&F & Ecopro BM’s Kospi Transfer Listing
- Yuanta ETFs Rebalance Preview: Soaring Stocks, Rising Shorts; AI Beats Shipping
- Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep 23: AI Frenzy Causes Many Changes to Expectations
- Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep 23: AUM Assumption Changes Again; SHORTs Down 15.6% Vs Index
- Searchlight/Gresham House: Attractive Spread
- Essential Metals/Develop Global: Rock Steady With MinRes Support
What We Know Until Now About L&F & Ecopro BM’s Kospi Transfer Listing
- Yonhap News reported on the exclusive coverage of Ecopro BM and L&F’s KOSPI transfer listing.
- L&F announced through the disclosure that they are considering the KOSPI transfer listing. Ecopro BM told another local news outlet that they are not currently reviewing the KOSPI transfer listing.
- It seems that L&F’s KOSPI transfer listing is almost a confirmed fact. However, the Ecopro company in question may be Ecopro Co, not Ecopro BM.
Yuanta ETFs Rebalance Preview: Soaring Stocks, Rising Shorts; AI Beats Shipping
- Using data from the close on 19 July, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and 2 deletions for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF.
- Stocks that are expected to benefit from the AI revolution could gain ETF inclusion while shipping stocks are the ones expected to be deleted from the ETF.
- There has been a huge increase in shorts on some of the potential inclusions and on most of the potential deletions. That will affect how stocks trade near term.
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep 23: AI Frenzy Causes Many Changes to Expectations
- In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the September 2023 Rebalance.
- Some semiconductor/electronic component stocks have seen their share prices skyrocket in recent months due to AI-related excitement causing drastic shifts in Leaderboard rankings.
- In my last insight, I expected two T50 changes and one T100 change. Now I expect five T50 changes and three T100 changes.
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep 23: AUM Assumption Changes Again; SHORTs Down 15.6% Vs Index
- In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s flow expectations for the September 2023 index rebalance.
- Since my last insight, my estimate for the tracking AUM estimate assumption for September 2023 has increased and has caused changes to my flow expectations.
- Separately, the SHORTs suggested in my last insight have underperformed the index by 15.6% in 3 weeks. I have updated my thoughts on that as well.
Searchlight/Gresham House: Attractive Spread
- Searchlight agreed to acquire via scheme of arrangement UK asset manager Gresham House PLC (GHE LN) for 1,105p/share in cash, c.£470 million, 12.6x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, 17.6x Fwd P/E. Terms are final.
- Irrevocables plus letters of intent total 33%. Although the consensus median TP is 1,170p/share (c. 5.8% higher), it seems difficult to argue with a 63% premium.
- Taking 680p break, the shares are pricing an 89% probability of completion. Spread is 4.3%/10.3% (gross/annualised), which explains why the shares have been liquid since the offer announcement. Long.
Essential Metals/Develop Global: Rock Steady With MinRes Support
- At the 20 April Scheme Meeting, Mineral Resources (MIN AU) (with 19.55%) and other shareholders voted against the Tianqi Lithium JV transaction for Essential Metals (ESS AU).
- This left Essential in no man’s land until MinRes (presumably) made a move. But on the 3 July, Develop Global (DVP AU) announced a binding Scheme with ESS.
- The all-scrip Scheme transaction has the backing of MinRes, which also owns a ~13% stake in Develop. This deal – this time- looks all stitched up.
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