In today’s briefing:
- TSE Action to Implement Management Conscious of Capital Cost and Stock Price – The Data Tool
- T&K TOKA (4636 JP): Bletcherous Bain Bump Doesn’t Even Reach Blandiloquent – Another Offensive Deal
- KOSDAQ150 Adhoc Index Rebalance: Seronics to Replace L&F
- CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: High Turnover & Big Flow
- Trading At Terms As Orecorp Rebuffs Perseus’ All-Cash Bid
- Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade Successful; More to Come?
- T&K Toka (4636 JP): Bain Bumps to JPY1,410 as Dalton Agrees to Tender
- OreCorp (ORR AU): Perseus Rivals Silvercorp with an All-Cash Takeover Offer
- GENDA Lock-Up – Since Selling in the IPO, Midas Capital’s Remaining Stake Is up Another 60%
- EQD | Nikkei 225 – MONTHLY Rally Trajectory Analysis + Resistance Targets
TSE Action to Implement Management Conscious of Capital Cost and Stock Price – The Data Tool
- A few days ago, the TSE announced a “name-and-shame” list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】
- That translates to “Action to Implement Management That is Conscious of Cost of Capital and Stock Price”. The TSE asked companies in Mar-2023 to formulate and disclose a policy.
- Some have. Some have not. The TSE made a list. They will update the list every month. However, their list is wholly inadequate, so we made it better.
T&K TOKA (4636 JP): Bletcherous Bain Bump Doesn’t Even Reach Blandiloquent – Another Offensive Deal
- I expected a blandiloquent but bletcherous bump from Bain. Discussed in T&K TOKA (4636 JP): Expect ANOTHER Blandiloquent But Bletcherous Bump From Bain. We got bletcherous.
- But at a mere ¥10 uplift to ¥1,410, we did not get blandiloquent. That’s insulting. But as suggested in the first piece, there was NAVF Risk. And we got it.
- NAVF agreed to sell its 24+% to Bain at ¥1,410 in return for being able to buy 15% of the bidco, fully-levered (i.e. they roll in at minimal cost).
KOSDAQ150 Adhoc Index Rebalance: Seronics to Replace L&F
- L&F Co Ltd (066970 KS) will move from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market on 29 January. That means KOSDAQ 150 Index deletion at the close on 26 January.
- As the highest ranked non-constituent from the Information Technology sector at the December rebalance, Seronics Co Ltd (042600 KS) will be added to the index.
- Short interest on L&F Co (066970 KS) is 1.8m shares (KRW 364bn; 4.98% of shares outstanding; 7.24% of float; 2.4x ADV). There could be recalls from passives and forced covering.
CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: High Turnover & Big Flow
- With three-quarters of the review period nearly complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI 500 Index at the close on 14 June.
- There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.1% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 5.34bn.
- The potential adds and deletes and the CSI 500 Index have performed in line since August and the current setup appears attractive.
Trading At Terms As Orecorp Rebuffs Perseus’ All-Cash Bid
- In OreCorp: Silvercorp Switches To Off-Market Bid, after Silvercorp Metals (SVM CN) switched to an off-market Offer for Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), I expected Perseus Mining (PRU AU) to counter.
- Orecorp announced this morning Perseus (with 19.9% of shares out) has pitched an all-cash Offer of A$0.55/share, primarily conditional on getting to 50.1%
- Orecorp has responded by saying Perseus Offer is not superior to Silvercorp cash/scrip terms. Perhaps it’s Orecorp’s way of (temporarily) skirting the break fee and letting the market decide.
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade Successful; More to Come?
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.
- The conclusion of the Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) M&A deal could trigger an index change in February 2024.
- Separately, there could be a “surprise” index change in March 2024 caused by a long-term trading suspension.
T&K Toka (4636 JP): Bain Bumps to JPY1,410 as Dalton Agrees to Tender
- T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP) has recommended Bain’s revised tender offer of JPY1,410 per share, a highly disappointing 0.7% premium to the previous JPY1,400 offer.
- Bain’s marginal bump was due to securing Dalton’s support through the Nichii Gakkan Co (9792 JP) playbook. Dalton will tender its shares and make a 15% re-investment in the offeror.
- Shareholders representing a 60.82% ownership ratio, including share options, will accept, paving the way to success. With shares trading 4.7% above terms, it is time to move on.
OreCorp (ORR AU): Perseus Rivals Silvercorp with an All-Cash Takeover Offer
- Perseus Mining (PRU AU)’s competing all-cash takeover offer for Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) is A$0.55, a 4.0% premium to the implied value of the Silvercorp Metals (SVM CN) off-market takeover offer.
- The Board opines that the PRU offer is not superior. Since announcing the revised SVM scheme on 23 November, the PRU offer has averaged 3.0% lower than the SVM offer.
- The SVM offer, which closes on 23 February, has struggled to gain traction. PRU has the balance sheet to sweeten its offer and gain shareholder traction.
GENDA Lock-Up – Since Selling in the IPO, Midas Capital’s Remaining Stake Is up Another 60%
- GENDA (9166 JP) (GENDA) was listed on the TSE on 28th July 2023. The IPO had been a mix of primary and secondary shares.
- Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
- Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the pre-IPO shareholders, notably Midas Capital, and the firm’s executives and directors.
EQD | Nikkei 225 – MONTHLY Rally Trajectory Analysis + Resistance Targets
- The seasonal matrix indicates a possibility for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) to continue its current rally into April and that rally should end in May.
- The index at the moment is very overbought, we expect some form of WEEKLY pullback soon, please consult our previous insight to find the WEEKLY resistance levels.
- The pullback should be seen as a WEEKLY pullback within a larger, longer MONTHLY (multi-month) uptrend, i.e. an opportunity to buy and/or add positions at better prices.
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