In today’s briefing:
- Toyo Construction FY23 Profit Forecast – 105% Payout = 6.5%, Lots of Shares Changing Hands
- DB Group: Kim Family Feud Leading to a Potential M&A Fight?
- GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr “Multi-Baggers” – It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers
- MSCI Japan May QCIR: Couple of Potential Changes
- Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Jun 23: Beigene Looks Interesting
- Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO Loses Ground to the Board’s New Five-Year Plan
- Pushpay: Shareholder To Vote (Again) On 27 April
Toyo Construction FY23 Profit Forecast – 105% Payout = 6.5%, Lots of Shares Changing Hands
- Two weeks ago, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) released a new Mid-Term Management Plan with a new investment plan, and a new capital plan (100% payout, ¥50/share minimum div til Mar-2026).
- Obvious goal: get the stock above ¥1,000/share so YFO’s ¥1,000 bid looks unattractive. Then they attacked on a FEFTA basis, saying YFO’s foreign entities need permission to go over 10%.
- Now Toyo has released a March 2024 forecast, with a ¥63/share dividend and 105% guided payout. The stock popped. LOTS of shares trading. Now only up small.
DB Group: Kim Family Feud Leading to a Potential M&A Fight?
- In this insight, we discuss another very interesting situation brewing which is the potential family feud at the DB Group.
- One of the scenarios of the Kim family at DB Group is a sibling conflict between Nam-Ho Kim (Chairman) and his sister Ju-Won Kim.
- Our base case valuation of DB Inc is target market cap of 488 billion won or 2,428 won per share, which is 36% higher than current price.
GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr “Multi-Baggers” – It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers
- The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is probing offshore deals for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.
- GQG’s Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a “multi-bagger in five years.”
- Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x.
MSCI Japan May QCIR: Couple of Potential Changes
- Based on the last close, we expect Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) to replace Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP) in the MSCI Japan Index at the May QCIR.
- Passive trackers will need to buy less than 1x ADV on Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) while selling over 5x ADV on Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP).
- Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) trades cheaper than its closest peers and there are some interesting market neutral trades there.
Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Jun 23: Beigene Looks Interesting
- The June 2023 index review results for the Hang Seng index can be expected after the close on 12th May 2023.
- In Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 23: Healthcare Names Could Dominate, we expected some healthcare names to be added but there were no index changes in March 2023.
- Although the index methodology is highly subjective and predicting index changes is extremely tricky, the HSI is an important index in the region and here are our thoughts for June.
Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO Loses Ground to the Board’s New Five-Year Plan
- The Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board has tried every tactic to delay YFO’s JPY1,000 tender offer. The Board’s new five-year medium-term management plan tilts the fight in its favour.
- The Board’s new management plan, particularly the dividend payout, now provides shareholders with a credible alternative to accepting YFOs’ tender offer. The payout ratio for FY23-FY25 is set at 100%.
- YFO’s primary tactic is to replace the Board at the June AGM, but shareholders have less reason to support it. Improving sentiment and the offer continue to underpin the shares.
Pushpay: Shareholder To Vote (Again) On 27 April
- At the 3rd March Scheme Meeting, just 55.5% of Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) shareholders voted for BGH/Sixth Street’s NZ$1.34/share Offer. At first glance, that was that.
- But uniquely in the M&A world, BGH/Sixth Street returned on the 16 March with a NZ$1.42/share Offer, a bump of 6%, around the mid-point of the independent expert’s valuation range.
- The revised Scheme Booklet is now out with a new vote to take place on the 27 April. Key shareholders and the IE are supportive. Implementation is estimated late-May.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
