In today’s briefing:
- Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule
- Itochu TOB on Itochu Techno Solutions – The Index Selldown Schedule for $700mm+ of Flows
- PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: MPI Delisting Could See Bloomberry Added
- Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans
- Descente a Key Part of Itochu’s Plans in Sports
- StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap
- Naspers (NPN) & Prosus (PRX): Initial Market Reaction to Leadership Changes
- Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)
- HLB: Hires Korea Investment & Securities for a Potential Switch to a KOSPI Listing
- Deutsche Boerse Gets >90% of SimCorp
Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule
- The JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) closes today. I expect that we will see results announced as early as late tonight, but by law, by latest tomorrow.
- There will be at least three major index downweights, and possibly deletions, most likely in the following five trading days.
- This shows the approximate maximum share and dollar amounts to be sold, and approximate dates.
Itochu TOB on Itochu Techno Solutions – The Index Selldown Schedule for $700mm+ of Flows
- In August, Itochu Corp (8001 JP) launched a Tender offer on Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) to buy out minorities.
- That tender offer ended last week, with Itochu and the acquirer vehicle owning 85+%.
- Interestingly, there are near-term flow events as a result. Worth watching.
PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: MPI Delisting Could See Bloomberry Added
- Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM) has announced that the public float of the stock will drop to 2.78% following the Tender Offer.
- Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM) shares are expected to be suspended from 26 September. That could see Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) added to the PCOMP INDEX on 25 September.
- There will be large passive inflows to Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) as well as flows from active managers that track the PCOMP INDEX.
Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans
- Back in February, Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold. Newmont bumped, there was due dili, then Newcrest Backs Newmont’s US$19bn Offer in May.
- More recently, we have Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct, with a prescribed schedule. That makes things fun.
- There will be considerable movement of shares, and that will mean opportunity. Both up and down. I see US$3bn to buy, then A$1.5bn or more to sell a bit later.
Descente a Key Part of Itochu’s Plans in Sports
- Through all the upheavals in discretionary product distribution in the last decade, Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s Itochu Textile subsidiary has managed to maintain huge power in the channel.
- While the trading firm has traditionally focused on premium fashion brands, in the last few years it has invested heavily in the sports market, including its growing investment in Descente.
- The move is part of wider plans to take lead share in sports, footwear and department store brands.
StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap
- The recent share price pullback sees PTT PCL (PTT TB) trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers.
- Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Naspers (NPN) & Prosus (PRX): Initial Market Reaction to Leadership Changes
- Early on Monday morning, Naspers and Prosus announced the immediate resignation of CEO Bob van Dijk. Management hosted an investor call shortly after. Key takeaways are included below.
- Ervin Tu, Group Chief Investment Officer, will take over as Interim CEO. Tu is a strong candidate for the permanent position.
- After an initial bounce at the open, both counters sold off, widening the discounts by more than 1 percentage point intra-day.
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
- There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&A events.
- There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU).
HLB: Hires Korea Investment & Securities for a Potential Switch to a KOSPI Listing
- On 20 September, HLB Inc announced that it has hired Korea Investment & Securities as an advisor for a potential switch from KOSDAQ to KOSPI listing.
- In our view, there is a 80-90%+ probability of HLB switching its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI sometime in the next 6-12 months.
- If HLB finally decides to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI, it is likely that HLB will be included in KOSPI 200 index in 2024.
Deutsche Boerse Gets >90% of SimCorp
- Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GR) offered a (full) price of DKK 735/share for SimCorp A/S (SIM DC) to grow in data & analytics. I recommend long. Acceptances total roughly 93.65% of share capital.
- All conditions and approvals, including minimum acceptance of 50%+1 share have been fulfilled. Final results should be announced on 22 September and settlement should take place on 29 September.
- Deutsche Börse will as soon as possible seek to initiate and complete a compulsory acquisition. After a recent dip, the shares trade again at the offer price.
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