In today’s briefing:
- Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP): Potential Scenarios as 3D Lobs a Privatisation Proposal
- Mandala Multifinance (MFIN IJ): Offer Now Open
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jul 2024); ETFs Get Bought, Banks Have Gone Missing
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Furukawa Battery, Arvida, Warehouse Group, Pacific Smiles, Canvest, Jeisys
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Sun Corp, Amorepacific, Canon Marketing, Jeisys Medical
- Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas
- Weekly Deals Digest (28 Jul) – Fancl, Furukawa Battery, Sun Corp, TFC, Canvest, CPMC, GAPack, Arvida
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK/China Markets Weak, Spreads Volatile
Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP): Potential Scenarios as 3D Lobs a Privatisation Proposal
- On 24 July, 3D Investment Partners proposed to privatise Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP) through a tender offer at JPY600-650 per share. A special committee will evaluate the proposal.
- 3D’s privatisation plan, in its current terms, is a non-starter as the price is low, and its activism campaign has so far been met with the Board’s scepticism.
- The possible scenarios are that a white knight emerges to buy 3D’s stake/launch a counteroffer, 3D bumps the offer price, or the Board introduces a more ambitious MTM plan.
Mandala Multifinance (MFIN IJ): Offer Now Open
- Waaay back in June 2023, MUFG (8306 JP) and 92.7%-held Adira Dinamika (ADMF IJ) entered into SPAs with key shareholders to acquire an 80.6% stake in Mandala Multifinance (MFIN IJ).
- MFIN’s shareholders overwhelmingly approved the change of control at the 13th Feb EGM. OJK signing off was the next hurdle.
- The Tender Offer is now open, at the (expected) price of IDR 3,297/share. The close of the Offer is the 21st August, with payment on the 28th August.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jul 2024); ETFs Get Bought, Banks Have Gone Missing
- SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.8bn this week (now 25wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes.
- I’ve thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, 1 bank showed up in the top 20 net buys after only 1 in the top ten last week.
- There were three ETFs in the top six SOUTHBOUND buys this past week. That was unusual. Some high div SOEs got sold.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Furukawa Battery, Arvida, Warehouse Group, Pacific Smiles, Canvest, Jeisys
- I tally 47 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: Furukawa Battery (6937 JP)‘s TOB, and the Arvida (ARV NZ). Warehouse Group Limited (WHS NZ)‘s co-founder is kicking tyres.
- Key updates took place on Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Jeisys Medical (287410 KS), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).
Last Week in Event SPACE: Sun Corp, Amorepacific, Canon Marketing, Jeisys Medical
- Expect True Wind to walk away rather than raising their price further for Sun Corp (6736 JP). They’d need to pay ¥5,500-5,800 to dislodge a large chunk. And they won’t.
- Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) plumbs new discount lows as Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) gets a boost from Amazon Prime Day.
- Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP) is still significantly under-levered. That means the stock price will generically not be that volatile. That generally means one should buy dips and sell pops.
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas
- NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
- With three more trading days left in the reference period, we are presenting our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
- We see five changes for the NIFTY 100 index which will also affect the NIFTY Next 50 index. There could also be multiple changes for the NIFTY 50 index.
Weekly Deals Digest (28 Jul) – Fancl, Furukawa Battery, Sun Corp, TFC, Canvest, CPMC, GAPack, Arvida
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Sanil Electric (062040 KS) and Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) IPOs.
- Event-Driven developments: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Furukawa Battery (6937 JP), Sun Corp (6736 JP), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK).
A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK/China Markets Weak, Spreads Volatile
- The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
- SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading. Hang Seng down again, A-shares down more. Bank buying minimal.
- AH Premia fell 30bp on average. 1% for Liquid names. HK vs A-shares saw an even wider spread (the opposite of last week). SUPER-tight AH premia saw best H outperformance.
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