In today’s briefing:
- The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour
- Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst
- Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!
- Merger Arb Mondays (25 Sep) – ENM, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin Energy, Symbio, Costa, InvoCare
- Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23): Financials & Communications Dominate Flows
- Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers
- Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : BYD, Midea, Bk of Jiangsu, & Amperex
The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour
- Every year it’s the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
- But there may be ¥800bn+ to buy on one day into the close later this month (+ another ¥200-300bn on two other days). Then a ¥500bn sell two days later.
- Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. In Sep, not so much. This year there are Extra Special Flows.
Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst
- Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.
- There has been a contraction in multiples and Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.
- A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.
Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!
- This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
- The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
- We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw HKD 14.5bn+ of net buying. That makes ten weeks of net inflows.
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Sep) – ENM, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin Energy, Symbio, Costa, InvoCare
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), JSR Corp (4185 JP), DDH1 (DDH AU), ENM Holdings (128 HK).
- Lowest spreads – Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Healius (HLS AU), Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Pacific Current (PAC AU).
Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23): Financials & Communications Dominate Flows
- The Brand-Spanking New (7 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
- We used to do it and brought it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 47 Trade Recommendations.
- The last 6 weeks (since the start of the new Monitor and Portfolio 7 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%.
Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers
- Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.
- Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.
- Potential passive buying could result in Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) outperforming peers in the near term.
Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : BYD, Midea, Bk of Jiangsu, & Amperex
- This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
- The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
- We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw small net buying for the first week in seven.
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