In today’s briefing:
- Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Big Buying in Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT) In Two Weeks
- Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau’s Low-Balled Scheme Offer
- Rakuten (4755 JP) – Trying To Goose The Stock Price Before Year-End or Mobile Sub Numbers for 2025?
- Weekly Deals Digest (08 Dec) – ESR, HKBN, Lifestyle China, Seven & I, De Grey, SG Fleet, Kioxia
- Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit
- Quiddity ASX Dec 24 Results: 100% Hit Rate; ADDs Have High-Impact; DELs See Short Covering
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN
- China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.8) – TCM VBP Update, GLP-1’s Good Story Broke, China TCM’s Sudden Rally
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: De Grey Mining, HPI, SG Fleet, Malaysia Airports, MPHB, Suntec REIT
- EQD | Hang Seng (HSI Index) – Most Popular Option Strategies, Calendar Strategies on the Rise
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Big Buying in Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT) In Two Weeks
- Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) will replace Airtac International (1590 TT) in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the close of trading on 20 December.
- Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) will also be added to the Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF in December, so there will be increased flow and impact from the passive buying.
- There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume in Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) but there is a similar trend in other stocks from the sector.
Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau’s Low-Balled Scheme Offer
- Lifestyle China (2136 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from Mr Thomas Lau at HK$0.913 per share, a 21.7% premium to the last close price of HK$0.75.
- The offer is unattractive compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples, and historical trading ranges. It has not been declared final.
- While no shareholder holds a blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates and emerging retail opposition suggest a high chance of a deal break. Therefore, a bump is probable.
Rakuten (4755 JP) – Trying To Goose The Stock Price Before Year-End or Mobile Sub Numbers for 2025?
- Today, Rakuten (4755 JP) announced a new shareholder benefit (株主優待) program today, to reward shareholders as of end-December 2024. The stated goal? To “thank shareholders”…
- …And provide more people with the opportunity to try out the benefits of Rakuten Mobile, with 1yr free of a 30GB/mo mobile plan. There are conditions, but it’s juicy.
- Last year’s 3mo plan was given with one day of notice. This year’s larger full-year govt gets 3+wks. They are juicing the sub numbers for 2025.
Weekly Deals Digest (08 Dec) – ESR, HKBN, Lifestyle China, Seven & I, De Grey, SG Fleet, Kioxia
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) IPO, Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) and Sanrio (8136 JP) placements.
- Event-Driven developments: ESR Group (1821 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), De Grey Mining (DEG AU), Sg Fleet (SGF AU).
Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit
- Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) shares rose 26% after the Nikkei reported that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) is contemplating selling its 64.5% stake.
- Logisnext confirmed the sale process. In a fair process, minorities should receive the tender offer price plus the proportionate share of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ TOB tax benefits.
- Despite the rise in share price, Logisnext trades at a discount to peer multiples. At an offer of JPY2,000, Logisnext would trade in line with median peer multiples.
Quiddity ASX Dec 24 Results: 100% Hit Rate; ADDs Have High-Impact; DELs See Short Covering
- The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the December 2024 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th December 2024.
- There will be one ADD/DEL for both ASX 50 and ASX 200. All of these are perfectly in line with our final expectations.
- In this insight, we take a final look at the flow expectations for each of these index changes.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN
- Reportedly, Ito Junro’s MBO for Seven & I (3382 JP) includes a US assets IPO to help pay down MBO debt to Japanese banks. Possible strategic mistake by Ito-san here.
- Starwood/Warburg Pincus’ firm Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) secures support from 30.79% of the register.
- We may be wrong on Sanrio (8136 JP) by a big factor but the multiple and the concentration risk of momentum factor means you are in an illiquid stock.
China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.8) – TCM VBP Update, GLP-1’s Good Story Broke, China TCM’s Sudden Rally
- The Medical Insurance Bureau of Hubei Province issued two documents on the VBP of TCM patent medicines.Shineway’s core product Qing Kai Ling is included, which would bring pressure on performance.
- It’s time to be cautious about the outlook for GLP-1s. We may need to be mentally prepared in advance that the actual market size of GLP-1s is only US$100 billion.
- Recent changes at the top of CNPGC have left some investors hopeful that China TCM will resolve horizontal competition as scheduled next year,but current bet on shares reversal isn’t wise.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: De Grey Mining, HPI, SG Fleet, Malaysia Airports, MPHB, Suntec REIT
- I tally 52 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Five new deals this week: De Grey Mining (DEG AU)‘s scrip merger; and cash Offers for ESR (1821 HK), HKBN (1310 HK), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), and Suntec (SUN SP).
- Key updates/news took place on: Latin Resources (LRS AU), Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU), Sg Fleet (SGF AU), Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), and MPHB (MPHB MK).
EQD | Hang Seng (HSI Index) – Most Popular Option Strategies, Calendar Strategies on the Rise
- Last week, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) gained 2.3% an increase while volatility slightly declined by 0.2%. The volatility surface provides the context for last week’s most popular strategies,
- Low implied volatility and a flat term structure support long volatility strategies and Calendar Spreads. In a bullish sentiment shift, almost half the strategies reflect a bullish view.
- The largest volume trade, an Iron Condor, is a rare example of a strategy generating premium income. This insight provides both aggregate data analysis and drill-down into individual trade parameters.
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