In today’s briefing:
- S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER
- Japan Activism: Japan Catalyst Fund Calls Out Taisho Pharma Committee on MBO Price
- Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San’s Cosmo Energy Stake
- Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 23 Rebal: Inflow Names Could Outperform Outflow Names
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Glosel, CIMC, Orecorp, Tietto Mineral, Lansen Pharmaceutical
- Quiddity ASX Dec 23 Index Rebal: Beware of Pre-Positioning
S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER
- Uber Technologies (UBER US), Jabil Circuit (JBL US) and Builders Firstsource (BLDR US) will be added to the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 15 December.
- There are a bunch of inclusions. deletions and migrations across the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), the S&P Midcap 400 Index, and the S&P SmallCap 600 Index.
- We estimate passive trackers will need to buy around US$18bn of Uber Technologies (UBER US). There has been positioning in the stock for just over a month now.
Japan Activism: Japan Catalyst Fund Calls Out Taisho Pharma Committee on MBO Price
- Japan Catalyst Fund is a relatively young effort in the Japan “engagement activism” space, having been founded by Monex Group in September 2019. Total assets remain apparently small.
- Championed by Monex Group founder Oki Matsumoto, despite small AUM, the fund has decent access. As of end-October, Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdings (4581 JP) was #5 and 5.26%. Now it’s #2.
- Friday, they released a statement about the MBO. It isn’t a barn-burner, but the stock has traded through terms since announcement at a too-low price. And nobody else has commented.
Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San’s Cosmo Energy Stake
- The question of how Murakami-san would get out of his stake in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) was always a biggie. He likes to sell stock in tender offer buybacks.
- Cosmo wasn’t going to do that for him. They promised dividends and a high payout ratio, but that left the question was how he was going to get out.
- A semi-obvious solution was to find a corporate partner to buy his stake and today, Iwatani Corp (8088 JP) announced that it had bought 19.86% of Murakami-san’s 20.01% holding.
Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 23 Rebal: Inflow Names Could Outperform Outflow Names
- The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 1st December 2023.
- The index changes were mostly in line with our final expectations.
- In this insight, we take a close look at the breakdown of our final flow expectations for the upcoming Inclusion/Exclusion and Capping events.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX
- The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
- There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
- Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy
- A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the Denso Corp (6902 JP) buyback, indeed, “It was a trap”.
- 3D Investment Partners raised its stake in Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP), suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.
- A firm merger proposal is expected for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Glosel, CIMC, Orecorp, Tietto Mineral, Lansen Pharmaceutical
- I tally 42 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: Glosel (9995 JP)‘s Tender Offer; and the indicative Offer for CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)‘s H-shares.
- Key updates on: Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), and Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)
Quiddity ASX Dec 23 Index Rebal: Beware of Pre-Positioning
- The December 2023 review results for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st December 2023.
- There will be three ADDs and thee DELs for the ASX 200 index. There are no changes for ASX 20, 50, and 100.
- In this insight, we take a look at our index flow expectations, trends in short interest, and the recent trading performance of the names involved in the ASX 200 changes.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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