In today’s briefing:
- Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week
- [Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover
- Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD
- Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements
- Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade
- StubWorld: T’Way Air (091810 KS) Takes Off As Key Shareholder Seeks Board Spill
- Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote
- Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood
Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week
- Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
- There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.
[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover
- The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
- Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025.
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD
- On the 17th Jan, CC Capital lifted is indicative Offer for Insignia Financial (IFL AU) to A$4.60/share from A$4.30/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Limited, non-exclusive due diligence was subsequently provided.
- As discussed in Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Term, I expected Bain to match CC Capital’s terms.
- Today Bain did just that, tabling a NBIO at A$4.60/share. Bain was also provided with limited, non-exclusive due diligence.
Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements
- MongoDB (MDB US) and Biogen Inc (BIIB US) are the main candidates for deletion based on their current and previous-review ranking.
- Ansys Inc (ANSS US) is expected to be deleted from the index by June 2025 following its $35bn acquisition by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US).
- United Airlines Holdings (UAL US) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) are currently the main candidates for addition, thus the first in line to replace Ansys Inc (ANSS US).
Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion
- On the 17th January, Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)‘s Offer was extended to the 24th January. Shares held by the Consortium plus tendering was then 86.18%. This looked done.
- The closing date of the Offer could have been pushed out to 4th Feb. However the consortium has now opted to lower the acceptance threshold to 85% from 90%.
- Because of the revision, shareholders can withdraw shares tendered before the 28th January. But why would they? This is now very much done. And trading accordingly.
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade
- CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
- We expect up to six ADDs and seven DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.
StubWorld: T’Way Air (091810 KS) Takes Off As Key Shareholder Seeks Board Spill
- A double dose of stubs this week! T’Way Air (091810 KS)‘s second-largest shareholder is seeking to spill the board. T’way Air and T’Way Holdings (004870 KS) are up big time.
- Preceding my comments on the T’way Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote
- The Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) offer is conditional on the approval of the GNH/GNF shareholders. On 22 January, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) shareholders approved the offer.
- The GNF vote requires approval of the scheme by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The vote remains a low risk.
- The GNF vote is aided by the higher derating of peers (the median peer’s share price has declined 12.7%) compared to the decline in the implied offer value (10.4%).
Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood
- Aedas Homes SA (AEDAS SM) stake sale: Castlelake’s stake is worth at least €897 million, with potential buyers Hines and Starwood likely to launch a mandatory public tender offer (OPA).
- Strategic Appeal: 21,200-home landbank, and market leadership attract international real estate investors, highlighting Spain’s strong housing demand and rising property prices.
- Possible offers, in line with past transactions, range between 10% discount to NAV to parity with it (which could be defended as “equitable price”. Long.
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