In today’s briefing:
- Shinsei’s TOB Period Almost Done – What Next?
- StubWorld: EcoPro Continues To Defy Logic
- KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy December Rebalance
- Doosan Bobcat Placement – Past Deals Have Been Mixed but the Stock Has Been Doing Well
- Exploring Two Lucrative Arbitrage Trading Opportunities in CJ CGV’s Monumental Rights Offer
- Doosan Bobcat Block Deal Sale: Concerned About North America Construction Sector Downturn
- Quiddity Leaderboard for F100/250 Sep 2023: One F100 Change and Two F250 Changes Likely
Shinsei’s TOB Period Almost Done – What Next?
- The Tender Offer by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) to take private SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is almost done. The tender closes on 23 June.
- The stock has not traded below theTOB Price since the announcement. People have built positions. Expect minimal liquidity from here on out. I expect a somewhat ‘weak’ result.
- Now starts a series of ‘technical’ events and deadlines which will culminate for some in delisting at end-Q3/start-Q4 and for some ends in years after an Appraisal Rights case.
StubWorld: EcoPro Continues To Defy Logic
- EcoPro Co Ltd (086520 KS) has swatted aside analyst downgrades and the indictment of its chairman to touch an all-time high.
- Preceding my comments on EcoPro are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy December Rebalance
- Just over a quarter of the way through the review period, we see six changes for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
- There are a few stocks that are close adds at the current time and a move higher can take them into inclusion zone leading to more deletions.
- While there is little to no short interest on the potential inclusions, short interest on the potential deletions ranges from 4.3-12.2 days of ADV and 0.5-3.5% of free float.
Doosan Bobcat Placement – Past Deals Have Been Mixed but the Stock Has Been Doing Well
- Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) aims to raise around US$220m via selling around 4.9% of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS) .
- This will be the third selldown in the company in less than a year with the previous two deals in Nov 22 and May 23 having delivered mixed results
- In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.
Exploring Two Lucrative Arbitrage Trading Opportunities in CJ CGV’s Monumental Rights Offer
- A capital increase event of this size allows for a classic arbitrage trading strategy involving the acquisition of subscription rights and the simultaneous sale of an equal amount of SSF.
- We can aim to profit from the price movements between warrants and SSF during the warrants trading period by getting out of the positions before the trading period ends.
- We will also likely encounter a significantly juicy price difference between warrants+subscription and SSF, given a discount rate of 25% with an enormous capital increase rate,
Doosan Bobcat Block Deal Sale: Concerned About North America Construction Sector Downturn
- After the market close on 20 June, Doosan Enerbility announced that it will sell 5 million shares of Doosan Bobcat through a block deal worth about 300 billion won.
- The block deal price range is from 54,800 won to 56,200 won, which represents a discount range from 6.18% to 8.51% (versus current price).
- We have a negative view of Doosan Bobcat block deal as we expect lower share price of Doosan Bobcat in 2H 2023 due to construction sector downturn in North America.
Quiddity Leaderboard for F100/250 Sep 2023: One F100 Change and Two F250 Changes Likely
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run up to the September 2023 Rebalance.
- I currently see one change for the F100 index and two separate changes for the F250 index.
- There are several names lurking just outside the borders and could be involved in index changes in September 2023 if there are sharp price changes.
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