In today’s briefing:
- Shin Kong/Taishin Merger – Proceeding Apace
- Macromill (3978 JP) – Five Major Investors Have 50+%; CVC Extends and Will Need to Bump Or Walk
- CPMC Holdings (906 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
- Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Awaiting the Consortium’s Next Move
- Event Driven: Demerger of OneSource: A Multi-Modality CDMO
- A Potential JV Between E Mart and Alibaba’s Korean Operations Could Value the JV at About $4 Billion
- InnoScience Technology (2577 HK): Low IPO Free Float Delays Global Index Inclusion
Shin Kong/Taishin Merger – Proceeding Apace
- Once shareholders of Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) agreed to the merger two months ago, that meant an FSC submission would come shortly.
- It came on 3rd December. Normally it takes two months, but can be extended. It appears the TFTC submission (which is considered wholly separately) was made as early as September.
- This should get approved within the timeframe or not long afterwards. There is one known “document” missing from the application as of submission, but it shouldn’t be a problem.
Macromill (3978 JP) – Five Major Investors Have 50+%; CVC Extends and Will Need to Bump Or Walk
- Three pre-existing Large Shareholders have not sold down. Two new 5+% shareholders have appeared since Tender Launch. Together, their reports give them 51.7% of shares out.
- That provides them with a significantly strong implied negotiating hand. Given the midpoint of the Target Company’s Advisor’s DCF Range, I expect a bump.
- Today the Bidder extended for 10 more days. They didn’t have the shares to close. I expect they won’t unless they bump a lot.
CPMC Holdings (906 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
- CPMC Holdings (906 HK)’s offer from ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) is HK$7.21 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 10 January.
- CCASS data shows that Mr Wei has tendered (22.01% of outstanding shares). Including acceptances, ORG’s shareholding was 46.63% of outstanding shares as of 24 December.
- The Board supports the offer, and it is close to being declared unconditional. At the last close and 25 January payment, the gross/annualized spread was 0.8%/10.9%.
Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Awaiting the Consortium’s Next Move
- Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)‘s voluntary conditional RM11.00 offer from the consortium has a first closing date of 8 January.
- Unusually, the independent directors and adviser have differing opinions – the directors and adviser agree that the offer is NOT fair. However, the directors opine that it is NOT reasonable.
- The consortium has three options – keep terms unchanged (hope for the best), bump or lower the acceptance threshold. The most likely option is to lower the acceptance threshold.
Event Driven: Demerger of OneSource: A Multi-Modality CDMO
- OneSource is riding the surging demand for GLP-1 drugs, a market projected to reach $30 Billion by 2030, with its expertise in Drug-Device Combination (DDC) solutions.
- OneSource is projected to achieve revenue of $350-$400 million over the next 3-4 years from $145 million in 2024 , with an impressive EBITDA margin approaching 40% from 25% in 2024.
- OneSource is expected to receive Listing Approval from the Stock Exchanges during Q4 FY25
A Potential JV Between E Mart and Alibaba’s Korean Operations Could Value the JV at About $4 Billion
- On 26 December, Reuters mentioned that E Mart could announce a major JV announcement with Alibaba Group Holding’s Korean operations that could value the JV at about $4 billion.
- The official launch of the JV is expected to take place sometime in 1H 2025. Gmarket and AliExpress Korea will become subsidiaries of this JV.
- Although this is not a done deal, this potential JV between Gmarket and AliExpress Korea is likely to have a positive impact on E Mart Inc (139480 KS).
InnoScience Technology (2577 HK): Low IPO Free Float Delays Global Index Inclusion
- InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) is anticipated to debut at the HKEX on 30 December 2024 with a valuation between $3.5bn – $3.9bn.
- InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) is forecasted to fail the fcap threshold in the first place for both global indices due to small size offering and lock-ups.
- The security is expected to be added in China all-world or small-cap at the September 2025 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry.
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