In today’s briefing:
- Sabana Industrial REIT – Offer Goes Live, Worth A Look
- MSCI Korea Index Rebalance: Kakao Pay Included
- KOSPI Size Index Migration: Names to Trade as We Are 30D Towards Effective
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, CSI500, XIN9I, DTAC/TRUE, Newcrest, Adani, Korea Spinoffs
- JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.
- Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana
- Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newmont/Newcrest, StanChart, Boustead Proj., Ihara, Iwasaki
- EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
Sabana Industrial REIT – Offer Goes Live, Worth A Look
- The Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) 2022H2 dividend went ex- on 6 February 2023, setting the Offer to be lowered. The Offer by Volare was lowered. Docs out Friday night.
- The S$0.465 Offer, adjusted for dividends (to be paid 27 March (cash or DRP units)), is now S$0.4504 per unit. The first close is 10 March 2023.
- Sabana has underperformed a basket of slightly higher beta peers by 1+% since the day before the announcement. Watch pro-ration risk.
MSCI Korea Index Rebalance: Kakao Pay Included
- MSCI announced its MSCI Korea index rebalance on 10 February. Kakao Pay (377300 KS) was the only company to be included in the MSCI Korea index.
- There were also nine Korean companies included in MSCI Small Cap index including Osstem Implant, DearU, and ISC Co.
- Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) and Ecopro Co Ltd (086520 KS) are higher probability potential candidates for inclusion in MSCI Korea Index rebalance in May.
KOSPI Size Index Migration: Names to Trade as We Are 30D Towards Effective
- Amorepacific Group is more likely to remain in LargeCap due to its share price surge earlier this year. Instead, Hyundai Autoever will likely face a large→mid migration.
- Of Small→Mid migrants. Sebang and Kum Yang deserve attention, as they will rank high in the Mid due to the rapid market cap growth over the past six months.
- YTD performance seems to have a higher correlation with individual sector performance than causality with this event. So, there is still a circumstantial probability that justifies the trade.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, CSI500, XIN9I, DTAC/TRUE, Newcrest, Adani, Korea Spinoffs
- MSCI announced the changes to the GIMI on Friday as part of the February QCIR. MSCI also announced a review of the free float of the Adani Group companies.
- FTSE will announce the changes to the All-World and All-Cap indices after the close of trading on Friday, 17 February. The same day is the S&P/ASX review cutoff for March.
- Yet another weekly outflow for the IShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV US) taking the YTD outflow to over US$2.5bn.
JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.
- Engineering & Construction firm Jgc Corp (1963 JP) on Friday announced 9M results. Full-Year forecasts were revised, with revenue lowered, but OP, RP, and NP unchanged.
- The company then also announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of up to 4.77% of shares out for ¥20bn to be executed Monday 13 February pre-open. But details matter.
- Four Important Takeaways: 1) sometimes a ToSTNeT-3 buyback is not a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, 2) that can be a good sign, and 3) sometimes Adjusted EV vs Adjusted EBITDA is OK.
Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments – Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ) guides to the low end of the IDR875-880 price range and Hesai Group (HSAI US) has a good debut.
- Event-Driven developments – Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Ihara Science (5999 JP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP).
Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan
- The MSCI revised the Adani Group weighting after reviewing FF. Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)affected. Adani Green (ADANIGR IN), Adani Power (ADANI IN), and Adani Ports (ADSEZ IN) not affected.
- Hongkong Land (HKL SP) is dirt cheap at 0.3x P/B. It is a China re-opening play. Plus the company is buying back shares.
- The Nikkei didn’t write an article on Toshiba (6502 JP) when everyone else did. They waited another day, with what appears to be a zinger on price at “about ¥2trln“.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newmont/Newcrest, StanChart, Boustead Proj., Ihara, Iwasaki
- There are 41 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Newmont/Newcrest; First Abu Dhabi Bank/Standard Chartered, Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP); Ihara Science (5999 JP), and Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP).
- Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), and Halcyon Agri (HACL SP).
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
- Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
- Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
- We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces
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