In today’s briefing:
- Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Hoping for the Best as Brother Plays the Waiting Game
- Block Deal Sale of 3.6% Stake in Shinhan Financial by BNP Paribas
- HanaTour Management Sale: Minority Shareholder Tender Offer & Price Premium Assessment
- CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold
- Hanmi Science: NPS Sides With Mother (Chairwoman) And Daughter
- Hana Tour Service: Major Shareholders Including IMM PE Likely to Sell Their Shares
- EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback In Sight (This Week or the Next)
- Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Jun 24: LONG OCN – SHORT FSJ Could Be Interesting
- Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update
- W-Scope IPO Lock-Up – Part of the Parent’s Stake Will Be Freed, but It’s Been Adding Instead
Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Hoping for the Best as Brother Plays the Waiting Game
- In response to Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) request, on 22 March, Taiyo said it was considering a revised offer. However, Taiyo has since remained silent.
- Despite discussions with Brother Industries (6448 JP), the Board have not been able to eliminate dis-synergies concerns. The Board has left the decision to accept the Taiyo offer to shareholders.
- While the Board is trying to dissuade Brother, Brother will take its offer directly to shareholders if the Taiyo offer fails. Taiyo’s behaviour suggests a reluctance to bump.
Block Deal Sale of 3.6% Stake in Shinhan Financial by BNP Paribas
- After the market close on 26 March, it was announced that BNP Paribas plans to sell its 3.6% stake in Shinhan Financial in a block deal sale 18.7 million shares).
- The block deal sale is estimated to be about 900 billion won, which would represent one of the largest block deal sales in Korea in the past several years.
- We have a Negative view on the Shinhan Financial Group block deal and we would not subscribe to it due to three major reasons.
HanaTour Management Sale: Minority Shareholder Tender Offer & Price Premium Assessment
- HanaTour seeks new ownership after 4 years under IMM PE. Despite COVID-19 setbacks, successful restructuring attracts attention from online travel and investment giants.
- Market rumors hint at Yanolja and Hotels.com interest, possibly intensifying acquisition competition, leading to a higher price premium. IMM’s 16.68% stake may value at ₩250B, a 35% premium.
- Last year’s mandatory tender offer for 50%+1 share awaits legislation. Unlikely to affect HanaTour sale. Nonetheless, potential acquirers may buy additional shares, suggesting further premium formation in share price.
CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold
- CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.
- The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.
- The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer.
Hanmi Science: NPS Sides With Mother (Chairwoman) And Daughter
- After the market close on 26 March, it was reported that NPS has decided it will side with Chairwoman Young-Sook Song (mother) and her daughter Ju-Hyun Lim.
- As a result, Chairwoman Young-Sook Song (mother) and Ju-Hyun Lim have secured 40.86% of the shares, which is slightly higher than the ownership of her two sons (38.4%).
- In the near term, this battle for the control of the company could have a positive impact on Hanmi Science’s share price.
Hana Tour Service: Major Shareholders Including IMM PE Likely to Sell Their Shares
- Hana Tour Service (039130 KS), the number one travel platform in Korea, announced that IMM PE (controlling shareholder of the company) is planning to sell its controlling stake.
- The total stake in the company that is up for sale could rise to 27.78%, including stakes held by Hana Tour founder Park Sang-hwan and co-founder Kwon Hee-seok.
- Potential buyers of the controlling stake in Hana Tour include Yanolja, Hotels.com, Booking.com, and Trip.com.
EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback In Sight (This Week or the Next)
- The S&P/ASX 200 Index has reached a specific resistance level that often precedes a short-term pullback, when this pattern is encountered.
- The pullback may happen next week, but this week is also a potential candidate since the 2nd week up is usually pretty weak when this pattern is encountered.
- Hold your LONG positions and cover them to hedge. Going SHORT is probably best at the end of the week, on Friday, if the week is closing up.
Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Jun 24: LONG OCN – SHORT FSJ Could Be Interesting
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
- There could be up to three intra-review changes for the F250 index during the next two months.
- Separately, there could be one change for F100 and two changes for F250 during the regular rebalance in June 2024.
Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update
- Net debt improved by around €1 billion to c. €5.8 billion. Prioritising deleveraging and allocations to new venture investments over dividends seem to have a negative impact on valuation.
- Porsche SE is viewed as a holding company of Volkswagen Group, which should warrant a discount of 15%-25% on the stock, instead of the massive 44.6% discount to NAV.
- Assuming a typical company holding discount of 15-25% range, the current share price indicates Porsche SE is liable for the whole c. €6.5 billion legal claims.
W-Scope IPO Lock-Up – Part of the Parent’s Stake Will Be Freed, but It’s Been Adding Instead
- WCP raised around US$314m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Korean IPO. The lockup on some of its parent’s stake will expire soon.
- WCP designs, manufactures, and sells separators, which are one of the four core materials for secondary Lithium-ion batteries.
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.
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