In today’s briefing:
- Recruit (6098) Launches ANOTHER Big Buyback
- Blibli IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion
- Stamp Duty Relief For Hong Kong Foreigners. But Wait …
- Thailand SET50 and SET100: Quiddity Index Rebalance Primer
- Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October ‘22 Report
- Mitsubishi Estate Logistics (3481 JP): Offering Could Trigger Outperformance Vs Peers Like Last Time
- China VAST: Pre-Condition Fulfilled for the China Jinmao Offer
- SZSE1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & MSCI/FTSE Eligibility
- EQD | Tesla (TSLA US): How to Play Earnings Via Options
Recruit (6098) Launches ANOTHER Big Buyback
- In January 2022, Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) launched a Tender Offer buyback to buy back shares from NTT Data, Hakuhodo, and TBS.
- Today, Recruit announced another buyback of up to 42mm shares (2.57% of shares out) spending up to ¥150bn, to go from now until 14 March 2023 (5mos).
- This time the buyback should have better traction and market impact, but it is not overwhelming, and the impact will likely lessen at higher share prices.
Blibli IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion
- Blibli (1437710D IJ) is offering 17.77bn shares in its IPO at a price range of IDR 410-460/share. That could raise up to US$530m and value the company up to US$3.64bn.
- The stock will not get Fast Entry to the IDX30, LQ45, MSCI and FTSE indices, so no near-term support from passive buying.
- The stock could make it into the MSCI Small Cap Index in February and the FTSE All-World/All-Cap Index in June. Earliest inclusion in IDX30/IDX80/LQ45 indices could be in July.
Stamp Duty Relief For Hong Kong Foreigners. But Wait …
- Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu will deliver his inaugural policy address on the 19 October, where he is expected to announce a number of “ground-breaking” measures.
- One such measure is non-residents who have owned property in Hong Kong for 3+ years may get their extra stamp duty refunded – if they take up permanent residency.
- Secondary home prices have declined 8% year-to-date, and are approaching a five-year low. Goldman Sachs expects home prices to decline 30% in 2023 from last year’s levels.
Thailand SET50 and SET100: Quiddity Index Rebalance Primer
- Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX) is a composite index which represents the price movement for all common stocks trading on the SET.
- SET50 and SET100 indices are calculated, respectively, from the stock prices of the top 50 and 100 listed companies on SET in terms of market capitalization and liquidity.
- In this insight, we take a look at the selection criteria and the historical price performance of past Rebalance Events.
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October ‘22 Report
- Since mid-September, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards widening.
- Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: BMW, Fuchs Petrolub, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
- Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco.
Mitsubishi Estate Logistics (3481 JP): Offering Could Trigger Outperformance Vs Peers Like Last Time
- Last Friday, small-cap logistics JREIT Mitsubishi Estate Logistics (3481 JP) (“MEL“) announced a follow-on equity offering to fund part of their recently-announced property acquisition.
- The primary offer quantity is 51,000 units. In addition, there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 2,550 units. The total size of this offering could be roughly ¥23bn (~US$157mn).
- Below is a closer look at the details of this offering and the potential of this offering to trigger strong secondary market performance in the following weeks.
China VAST: Pre-Condition Fulfilled for the China Jinmao Offer
- China Vast Industrial Urban Development (6166 HK) announced that all the pre-conditions were fulfilled. China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK)’s offer is HK$2.40 per share.
- The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of disinterested shareholders rejection). Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive.
- The offer is light, but the headcount test is not applicable. At last close and for a year-end payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.8% and 4.0%, respectively.
SZSE1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & MSCI/FTSE Eligibility
- Nearing the end of the review period for the SZSE1000 Index, we estimate around 50 changes to the index. The first-order impact on the stocks is not large.
- Stocks that are not currently in Buy/Sell Stock Connect will be added to the list. That makes them eligible for inclusion in the MSCI and FTSE indices in February/March.
- 5 of the potential adds could be added to the MSCI China Index in February and 34 of the potential adds could be added to the FTSE All-World/All-Cap in March.
EQD | Tesla (TSLA US): How to Play Earnings Via Options
- TS LA reports earnings on October 19th, and we analyse expected moves using the options market
- Stock has suffered some production issues, but we think company has potential to beat the lowered estimates
- We identify some option strategies to play the event with goof risk/reward
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