In today’s briefing:
- Rakuten Bank (5838) One Month Later
- EcoPro Materials: IPO & Index Inclusion
- Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO’s Potential Revised Offer at JPY1,255
- Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (26 Sept): Kwoks Buying Sun Hung Kai; ED Selling Yantai North
- Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: 7 Changes Possible Including Two Intra-Review Changes
- Seizing a Trading Opportunity Aimed at HMM’s New Stock Listing Date
- Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Dec 23: One MDAX Change and Three SDAX Changes Possible
- EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD
- Onewo IPO Lock-Up – US$1bn+ Lockup Release, Parent Could Still Sell
Rakuten Bank (5838) One Month Later
- On 31 August, I published Rakuten Bank (5838) – 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks. It’s up 40.6% since the day after I wrote, reasons unclear.
- TOPIX Banks Index is up 10.4% since then, with post-BOJ meeting price movements indicating a kind of momiai.
- For Rakuten Bank, while growth means it may not be “expensive” it is no longer dirt cheap. And I cannot identify the culprit, so time to take profits.
EcoPro Materials: IPO & Index Inclusion
- EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) was founded in 2017 and specializes in manufacturing cathode material precursors, a core material for lithium secondary cells.
- EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) could raise between US$387m-US$492m, valuing the company between US$1.9bn-US$2.42bn. Float will depend on voluntary lock-ups and allocation to strategic investors.
- Inclusion in global indices is likely to take place between February to June, while the highest probability of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) inclusion is in December 2024.
Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO’s Potential Revised Offer at JPY1,255
- YFO has returned with a potential tender offer price of JPY1,255 per share for Toyo Construction (1890 JP), 25.5% above its previous offer of JPY1,000 per share.
- The offer is conditional on due diligence access to confirm the feasibility of the medium-term management plan and no material accounting, tax, or legal issues.
- The due diligence will take a month, with the offer expected to commence in late December. Expect due diligence access as the revised offer represents a 10-year high.
Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (26 Sept): Kwoks Buying Sun Hung Kai; ED Selling Yantai North
- The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
- Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
- The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Yantai North Andre Juice H (2218 HK).
Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: 7 Changes Possible Including Two Intra-Review Changes
- In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the SE600 and EURSTX Indices for the December 2023 Rebalance.
- There could be up to seven index changes in the run up to the December 2023 rebalance.
- This includes a couple of intra-review index changes that could be triggered by the Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) and Chr Hansen Holding A/S (CHR DC) takeover situations.
Seizing a Trading Opportunity Aimed at HMM’s New Stock Listing Date
- Should the stock conversion decision be reached this week, the new shares will be listed on the 15th of the upcoming month. So, they will officially debut on October 16th.
- On the day of the new share listing during the immediate previous case, the price dropped by 2.36%, and on the very next trading day, it declined by 3.72%.
- Given the present dilution rate of 30%, there is a higher probability of even more pronounced price movements in the same direction.
Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Dec 23: One MDAX Change and Three SDAX Changes Possible
- In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the September 2023 Rebalance.
- I currently do not see any index changes for DAX but Fresenius Medical Care & (FME GR) and Zalando (ZAL GR) are close to being an ADD and DELETE respectively.
- I see one change for the MDAX index. Separately, there could be up to three SDAX change in the run up to the December 2023 review including one intra-review change.
EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD
- The KOSPI 200 INDEX closed down last week (CC=-1) and is currently down this week as well (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday), currently approaching Q3 support at 324.
- Based on Market Reversal Matrix time/price models, if this week the KOSPI closes down at <=324, the index will have a >75% probability to close the next week up.
- Going LONG is not without risk at this stage: this pattern is not bullish, the correction could reach <300, based on the models, but the index is getting OVERSOLD.
Onewo IPO Lock-Up – US$1bn+ Lockup Release, Parent Could Still Sell
- Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) had raised around US$730m in its Hong Kong IPO in Sep 2022. Its one-year lockup is set to expire soon.
- OST is a property management service provider in China, primarily owned by China Vanke (H) (2202 HK).
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
