Daily BriefsEvent-Driven

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Rakuten Bank (5838) IPO – Let’s Go! (Part 2) and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank (5838) IPO – Let’s Go! (Part 2)
  • Arclands (9842) Overpays for Arclands Service Holdings (3085)
  • Merger Arb Mondays (17 Apr) – Newcrest, Essential, Healius, Lian Beng, Golden Energy, Arcland
  • Aiming for Price Movement Patterns with Low Market Exposure in MSCI Korea May Review
  • Rights Arbitrage
  • Weekly Deals Digest (16 Apr) – Lian Beng, Arcland, Essential, Genesis, Newcrest, Rakuten Bank, ZJLD
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Rakuten Bank (5838) IPO – Let’s Go! (Part 2)

By Travis Lundy

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) lowered its listing price vs what were already lowered expectations from a year prior. Then Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) lowered its IPO range. 
  • SBI Sumishin dilly-dallied around IPO price for three days then went nuts, rising 40% as of Friday morning. Rakuten Bank’s IPO looks dirt cheap now. 
  • But it is worthwhile comparing it on a spectrum of OTHER Japanese banks and neobanks. 

Arclands (9842) Overpays for Arclands Service Holdings (3085)

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP) and restaurant franchise subsidiary Arcland Service (3085 JP), which it launched in 1993 and IPOed in 2007, announced they had agreed to merge. 
  • Arcland SHD runs 18 restaurant brands, of which Katsuya is most well-known, with a total of 750 or so restaurants managed globally. It has grown consistently.
  • The merger ratio is at an all-time high for Arcland SHD. This should be a done deal but I might expect some complaints. I think Arclands is probably overpaying. 


Aiming for Price Movement Patterns with Low Market Exposure in MSCI Korea May Review

By Sanghyun Park

  • We should aim for price movement patterns with relatively low market exposure. One of them is the post-effective upward price movement of deletions.
  • The relative price performance for one week after the implementation compared to KOSPI 200 was consistently positive, ranging from 2.41% to 6.82%.
  • Given the recent price movement of four deletion candidates, there is again a high possibility that the price distortion caused by MSCI flow will revert after the effective date.

Rights Arbitrage

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The rights issue is fully underwritten and should bolster the balance sheet. This is akin to a placing by market volume. There are arbitrage opportunities (although not limitless borrowing available).
  • The arbitrage is a long position on a synthetic put. Rights will trade up to 17:30 on 3 May.
  • The new shares coming is a giant block compared to the existing shares outstanding. There may be a wave of selling from 4 May, and the shares should drop then.

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Apr) – Lian Beng, Arcland, Essential, Genesis, Newcrest, Rakuten Bank, ZJLD

By Arun George


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).
  • Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
  • Possible trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, Grifols, Atlas Copco.

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