In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext Dec 24: US$400mn Expected Inflow for Jiangsu Hoperun
- Bossini (592 HK): Viva Goods Offer?
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Service Dec 24: US$271mn One-Way; 1x-4x ADV to Trade for Most Names
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 24: Some Changes to Exp ADDs/DELs; Large Flow Expectations
- Let’s Get Real About the Odds of MBK Launching a New Tender for YPP
- Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Oct24)
- Takashimaya (8233 JP) Decent Earnings, BIG Buyback (Odd Register Dynamics)
- Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): Hanwha’s Final Offer Could Get the Deal Done
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
- CSI 500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$5bn Round-Trip Trade
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext Dec 24: US$400mn Expected Inflow for Jiangsu Hoperun
- The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
- The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
- In this insight, we have presented our updated rankings for Potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in December 2024.
Bossini (592 HK): Viva Goods Offer?
- Bossini International Holdings (592 HK), a casual apparel play, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. As is Viva Goods (933 HK), Bossini’s largest shareholder, with 62.91%.
- Former Olympic gymnast Li Ning holds 68.96% of Viva Goods. Viva Goods also holds a 10.37% stake in Li Ning (2331 HK).
- The double suspension is probably a pre-cursor to Viva Goods tabling a delisting Offer for Bossini.
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Service Dec 24: US$271mn One-Way; 1x-4x ADV to Trade for Most Names
- CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
- We expect up to five ADDs and five DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index rebal event based on the latest available data.
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 24: Some Changes to Exp ADDs/DELs; Large Flow Expectations
- CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
- We currently expect 16 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500. Some of these names are different from what we had in our September 2024 insight.
Let’s Get Real About the Odds of MBK Launching a New Tender for YPP
- Since MBK’s tender started, institutional trading has been light, leaving local retail investors in control. Choi’s 35% ceiling poses real proration risk for traders eyeing the action.
- MBK might not have wanted YPP; they could just be using it as bait to not only drain Choi’s cash but also to put them in a tight financial spot.
- MBK is set to focus on snapping up Korea Zinc shares in the open market to increase their stake and thwart any buyback tender offers.
Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Oct24)
- TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
- Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. input a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports. We hope it helps.
- This tool is designed to be a shelf reference. We update it once a month, and every CorpGovReport and new “Management Conscious” report updated since a CGR update is here.
Takashimaya (8233 JP) Decent Earnings, BIG Buyback (Odd Register Dynamics)
- Today, Takashimaya (8233 JP) reported Q2 earnings, a dividend hike, upward revisions to the FY26 MTMP, and a decent-sized buyback to raise leverage levels and ROE.
- The company is yen-sensitive both in overseas retail and domestic department stores on inbound traffic. One could imagine future issues.
- The register looks like it is quite open. It is not. That is worth considering now and in future.
Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): Hanwha’s Final Offer Could Get the Deal Done
- Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP) disclosed a revised conditional offer from Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) and Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) at S$0.67, an 11.7% premium to the initial S$0.60 offer.
- The Estate (largest shareholder) stated that the previous S$0.60 offer was not compelling. The final offer addresses most of the Estate’s valuation concerns.
- The Estate’s view and IFA opinion in the circular (despatched by 23 October) will be crucial to the acceptance rate. They are likely to support the final offer.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
- Horizon Robotics (1395186D CH) is offering 1.355bn shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$3.73-3.99/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$6.2bn (US$801m).
- Cornerstone investors will take up a third of the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.
- Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 – however, as a stock with Weighted Voting Rights, inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only take place in May.
CSI 500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$5bn Round-Trip Trade
- With 95% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the close on 13 December.
- We estimate a one-way turnover of 11% at the rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY17.56bn (US$2.48bn). The Information Technology and HealthCare sectors gain at the expense of Industrials.
- After drifting lower over the last couple of months, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks. There should be more to go here.
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