In today’s briefing:
- OZ Minerals – Circumstances Apparently Do NOT Merit a Revised Tilt
- Japan Excellent (8987) Has Been Most Excellent. It Should Still Be.
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, United Tractor, Recruit, Tyro Payments, DTAC/True, Bank Of Kyoto
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SZSE1000, NIFTY, HDFC/HDFCB, Ming Yuan, Blibli, KMB IN
- Nearmap’s Spread Widens, Scheme Meeting on 25 November
- FTSE UK Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Countryside Deletion and Many Other Intra-Review Changes in Nov
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tyro, Fengxiang, Singapore Medical, Shinsei Bank, True/DTAC
- Nearmap (NEA AU): 25 Nov Scheme Meeting. IE Says Fair & Reasonable
- Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 21st Oct: Impro Precision, Wealthking, C C Land, China Bright
OZ Minerals – Circumstances Apparently Do NOT Merit a Revised Tilt
- Talk about timing… Friday before the close I wrote that I thought circumstances might merit a revised tilt at OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) by BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU).
- Earnings are Monday, copper is up in AUD terms, time is moving us forward into a supply squeeze. It all looks good to me.
- But an article this morning in the AFR says BHP CEO Mike Henry called OZ Minerals “nice to have” not a “must have” and talked “discipline.” Oops.
Japan Excellent (8987) Has Been Most Excellent. It Should Still Be.
- Two months ago I wrote about a possible “Sustained Flow Event” on Japan Excellent (8987 JP). Since then, the stock has outperformed every other Office REIT. It’s up since then.
- Outperformance within Office REITs has been a minimum of 5.9%, and a maximum of ~17% vs the biggest peer, with an average and median outperformance of 10.8% and 9.2% respectively.
- There is no reason to think it won’t continue, but the Japan Excellent story is idiosyncratic.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, United Tractor, Recruit, Tyro Payments, DTAC/True, Bank Of Kyoto
- Toshiba (6502 JP) investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and others. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.
- United Tractors (UNTR IJ) is cheap. It appears to be running at 6x 2022 earnings. This is not abnormal for a cyclical at the end of the cycle.
- Westpac Banking (WBC AU) confirms its interest in Tyro Payments (TYR AU), but still nothing firm.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SZSE1000, NIFTY, HDFC/HDFCB, Ming Yuan, Blibli, KMB IN
- The review period for the MSCI November SAIR started during the week and will run till 31 October. The TPX INDEX October rebalance will be implemented close on 28 October.
- The HDFC/ HDFCB merger is progressing faster than expected. NSE Indices has started a market consultation on treatment of mergers and demergers in their indices.
- There have been big redemptions in iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US) and iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG US) during the week. Tracker Fund had big inflows.
Nearmap’s Spread Widens, Scheme Meeting on 25 November
- The IE considers Thoma Bravo’s A$2.10 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$1.94 to A$2.45 per share (but the below the midpoint of A$2.20).
- The spread has risen due to suggestions that some investors aim to block the scheme. These investors aim for a bump but will likely settle for the offer if unsuccessful.
- At Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)‘s last close price and for the 15 December payment, the gross and annualised spread is 5.8% and 44.5%, respectively.
FTSE UK Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Countryside Deletion and Many Other Intra-Review Changes in Nov
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.
- There are multiple FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 constituents involved in M&A situations and there could be around five intra-review changes during 4Q 2022.
- Most interestingly, some of the names leading the race to become intra-review replacement ADDs seem to have decent volume impact.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tyro, Fengxiang, Singapore Medical, Shinsei Bank, True/DTAC
- There are 45 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- I see no new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week.
- Key updates took place for Tyro (TYR AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Singapore Medical (SMG SP), Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), and True (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB).
Nearmap (NEA AU): 25 Nov Scheme Meeting. IE Says Fair & Reasonable
- On the 15 August, mapping technology outfit Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU) unanimously backed Thoma Bravo’s A$2.10/share Offer by way of a Scheme of Arrangement.
- The Scheme Booklet has now been lodged with ASIC. The Independent Expert reckons the Offer is fair and reasonable.
- The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 25 November, as previously flagged in August’s SID, with an expected implementation on the 15 December.
Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 21st Oct: Impro Precision, Wealthking, C C Land, China Bright
- The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
- Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
- These insights may flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include Impro (1286 HK), Wealthking (1140 HK), C C Land (1224 HK), and China Bright (1859 HK).
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