In today’s briefing:
- Oriental Land (4661) As Nikkei 225 Candidate – What Is Float? What Is “The Tricky Twist”?
- Sembcorp Marine & Keppel O&M: STI Inclusion Possibility & Other Index Flow
- TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2023
- Greatview Aseptic (468 HK): Rival Purchases And Grandstanding
- (Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand
- O2Micro (OIIM US): US$5 Privatisation Approved, Spread Remains Wide
Oriental Land (4661) As Nikkei 225 Candidate – What Is Float? What Is “The Tricky Twist”?
- As discussed in Nikkei 225 March Review – Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023) (and earlier versions), Oriental Land (4661 JP) is a candidate to join the Nikkei 225 in March 2023.
- As of early January, it was the top-ranked impact name with 11.8 days of ADV to buy, and if it underperformed the Nikkei from there, there’d be more to buy.
- With the data collection period now complete, it is top-ranked, still. And it is still ~10-12 days to buy. Understanding shareholder structure, however, is key. So I dive in.
Sembcorp Marine & Keppel O&M: STI Inclusion Possibility & Other Index Flow
- The Sembcorp Marine (SMM) EGM is scheduled for 16 February. If approved by shareholders, the Asset Co transaction and completion of the KOM restructuring will be done by 28 February.
- We expect no market trade from FTSE trackers, buying from MSCI trackers, while there is a question mark over treatment in the FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX).
- There could be selling in Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) from active Keppel Corp (KEP SP) shareholders and that could have a bigger impact on the stock.
TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2023
- The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.
- For companies with “low liquidity” the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.
- Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2023.
Greatview Aseptic (468 HK): Rival Purchases And Grandstanding
- After Greatview Aseptic (468 HK) was suspended on the 30 January, it emerged that Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) had entered a SPA to acquire Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s 28.22% stake
- Greatview has now confirmed the transaction. Shares were supposed to resume trading this afternoon but were immediately suspended again.
- Importantly, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH), Xinjufeng’s largest customer is a main competitor of Greatview’s largest customer. That may be an untenable situation, according to the announcement.
(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand
- For the month of January, four new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
- The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~28%, which is distorted by the take under for Esso Thailand (ESSO TB).
- This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.
O2Micro (OIIM US): US$5 Privatisation Approved, Spread Remains Wide
- O2Micro International (OIIM US)‘s US$5.00 per ADS privatisation offer from FNOF Precious Honour Limited was overwhelmingly approved by shareholders.
- The key remaining condition precedent is obtaining the required regulatory approvals related to the listing rules of NASDAQ and the Cayman Islands. There are no Chinese regulatory approvals required.
- The conditions precedent should be satisfied shortly. At the current price and for an end-March close, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 6.4% and 45.6%, respectively.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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