In today’s briefing:
- NTT’s Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) –
- Intage Holdings (4326 JP): NTT’s Partial Tender Offer
- StubWorld: Axiata Is Coming Up Cheap
- CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Potential Changes in December
- Single-Day ETF Flow Event Not to Be Missed in Korea in December
- JF Wealth Lock-Up – At Least US$465m to Be Unlocked, Needs Some Selling to Improve Its Liquidity
NTT’s Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) –
- Today, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) announced a partial offer to buy a minimum of 40.0% and a maximum of 51.0% of Intage Holdings (4326 JP).
- Six crossholders holding 20.98% between them have separately agreed to tender a total of 19.9%. That means a minimum 25.4% minority participation. With success, minimum pro-ration is 51.5%.
- The dynamics of this deal and where synergies lie suggests people need to think really hard about where they underwrite future illiquid ownership.
Intage Holdings (4326 JP): NTT’s Partial Tender Offer
- NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) has announced a partial tender offer for Intage Holdings (4326 JP) to make it a consolidated subsidiary.
- The offer is for a minimum of 15.4m shares (40.00% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 19.6m shares (51.00%) at JPY2,400 per share, a 26.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
- Irrevocables represent a 19.90% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 20% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high.
StubWorld: Axiata Is Coming Up Cheap
- Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)‘s NAV discount and implied stub are around their lows since the CelcomDigi (CDB MK) / Digi.com merger last November.
- Preceding my comments on Axiata are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Potential Changes in December
- Over 85% of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the December rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 8 December.
- We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.93% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.93bn.
- The huge inflow to passive trackers has led to the gap between the potential adds and deletes narrowing. That should reverse as passive will need to sell the deletes.
Single-Day ETF Flow Event Not to Be Missed in Korea in December
- Ecopro Co will replace Celltrion Inc. Their float market cap difference is nearly 5 trillion won, so it doesn’t seem likely that this will reverse by the end of November.
- Ecopro may not have a very significant passive impact x ADTV, given its still high trading volume. On the other hand, Celltrion seems likely to be the target of traders.
- From a trading perspective, it’s important to focus on the potential price impact of this flow event on Celltrion, which could be amplified depending on the possibility of merger cancellation.
JF Wealth Lock-Up – At Least US$465m to Be Unlocked, Needs Some Selling to Improve Its Liquidity
- JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) was listed on 10th March 2023, its one-year lockup will expire on 9th Sept 2023.
- The firm had raised around US$129m in its Hong Kong IPO, at the bottom end of its indicative price range.
- JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market.
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