In today’s briefing:
- Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard
- Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: August ‘22 Report
- Tencent Increases Its Stake in Ubisoft
- Explaining the Unusual Flow Situation of Osstem Implant
- DAX, MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX Sep 2022 Rebal: Large Impacts Only for Hella & Stabilius
Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard
- The Sep 2022 Nikkei 225 Annual Review has been announced. This was discussed in Nikkei 225 Review Results: Nidec, SMC, Hoya IN.
- That means we can make early predictions for the March 2023 rebalance to be announced in six months. One way turnover would be about 1.4%.
- The top three adds are Oriental Land, Renesas, and JAL. The top 3 sells would be Toyobo, Toho Zinc, and Nippon Sheet Glass. There are some dark horses here too.
Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: August ‘22 Report
- Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened or stayed at the same level during August/beginning of September, in line with the loses in the main indexes.
- Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 46.1%; GBL, 34.1%; Heineken Holdings 21.3%; Industrivärden C, 10.1%; Investor B, 18.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 29.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 14.5%.
- Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).
Tencent Increases Its Stake in Ubisoft
- It was reported in August that Tencent was looking to raise its stake in Ubisoft and had reached out to Ubisoft’s founding family Guillemot who currently owns 14.0% of Ubisoft.
- Tencent has acquired a 49.9% economic stake in Guillemot Brothers for EUR300m and as part of the deal, will be allowed to up its current stake in Ubisoft.
- Ubisoft announced on Tuesday that its board of directors have authorised Tencent to increase its direct stake in Ubisoft from 4.5% to 9.99%.
Explaining the Unusual Flow Situation of Osstem Implant
- From August 26 to September 2, the net buying of investors classified as “Other Corporation” was substantial at 500K shares or 3.5% of SO, which amounted to about ₩60B.
- It seems almost sure that the KCGI has made a move. As a result, the possibility that the Hanjin Kal event will be repeated is also relatively high.
- The first inflection point would be when the KCGI passes the 5% stake and makes a regulatory filing. We will see a pretty intense momentum trading on proxy battle expectations.
DAX, MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX Sep 2022 Rebal: Large Impacts Only for Hella & Stabilius
- The September 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX were announced late last night.
- There is one change for the DAX Index, four changes for the MDAX Index, seven changes for the SDAX Index, and two changes for the TecDAX Index.
- In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.
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