In today’s briefing:
- Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.
- Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem
- Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec
Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown
- As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
- We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won’t be obvious to everyone.
- There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.
- SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies still. Hs up vs As only slightly. Liquid Hs were down vs As.
- SOUTHBOUND saw HK$144bn of net INflows on the week to 22 Dec, which was HK$4bn of Tencent net sales and net buying of a bunch of ETFs.
- Some banks and energy names were top net inflows as a percentage of ADV. This week was heavy for SOUTHBOUND, quiet for foreigners, next week may be quiet for both.
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week
- The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
- Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 2.2bn of A-shares on sharply lighter activity. Quieter all week.
- Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp
- I tally 50 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Six new deals discussed this week, all Down Under: Adbri (ABC AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), Probiotec (PBP AU), A2B Australia (A2B AU), and Whispir (WSP AU).
- Key updates took place on: Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Lithium Power International (LPI AU), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).
Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem
- Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%.
- Hankook & Company (000240 KS)‘s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
- If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments – Nothing of note in a quiet week.
- Event-Driven developments – Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), Adbri (ABC AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Link Administration (LNK AU).
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