In today’s briefing:
- MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Deletion; Float & Capping Changes
- ASMPT (522 HK): PAG Potential Privatisation?
- Oishi Group (OISHI TB): ThaiBev’s Delisting Tender Offer at THB59.00
- Swire Back To Buying Back – One-Third To Go
- MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Float Changes
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI China, S&P/ASX, KOSDAQ150, KOSPI, CPSE/Bharat22, YES, OZL
- MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Friday
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Dai Nippon Printing, Melco, Hosokawa Micron,Tencent/Meituan, Ihara Science
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Invocare, Yashili, Pushpay Holdings, S.M.Entertainment
- EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Deletion; Float & Capping Changes
- Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN) will be deleted from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the close of trading on 17 March.
- One-Way turnover is 4.2% and the one-way trade is US$21m. There are two stocks where passive trackers need to buy over 1 day of ADV.
- There have been big inflows to the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM US) over the last three months as the index has traded near its lows.
ASMPT (522 HK): PAG Potential Privatisation?
- Bloomberg reported that PAG and other parties have expressed interest in taking ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) private. PAG also sounded out several lenders.
- ASMPT has three substantial shareholders (Asm International Nv (ASM NA), FIL Limited and Schroders PLC (SDR LN)) which suggests a requirement for a reasonable takeover premium.
- ASMPT previously denied a privatisation rumour in 2020. Nevertheless, peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$82-97 per share, 11-31% premium to the last close.
Oishi Group (OISHI TB): ThaiBev’s Delisting Tender Offer at THB59.00
- Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) has disclosed a delisting tender offer from Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) at THB59.00 per share, a 26.9% premium to the undisturbed price (10 March).
- The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and <10% rejection by total outstanding shares. ThaiBev can vote at the EGM.
- The offer price is reasonable and timing is the key risk. The delisting EGM will be held on 3 May. The offer must be open for 45 business days.
Swire Back To Buying Back – One-Third To Go
- After two months of zero buybacks under their HK$4bn buyback programme, on Friday Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) | Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK) again bought back shares.
- Ostensibly, it was as Swire A shares fell below HK$60/share. They were 65% of B volume and 51% of A volume on Friday – not shy about their return.
- Assuming participation patterns normalise and the shares don’t bounce back above the self-imposed limit, the buyback will probably last 6-7 weeks more. The div arb is real if you hold.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Float Changes
- Dacian Gold Ltd (DCN AU), Gold Resource (GORO US) and Wallbridge Mining Co (WM CN) will be deleted from the index at the close on 17 March.
- One way turnover is estimated at 2.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$96m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 22 stocks.
- The largest inflows are on Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM US), Osisko Gold Royalties, Zhaojin Mining Industry, New Found Gold (NFG CN), Yamana Gold, IAMGOLD and First Majestic Silver.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI China, S&P/ASX, KOSDAQ150, KOSPI, CPSE/Bharat22, YES, OZL
- Some KOSPI indices rebalanced at the close on Thursday while the Hang Seng family of indices and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) rebalanced at the close on Friday.
- The S&P/ASX family, MVIS family and a bunch of other indices will rebalance at the close on coming Friday.
- After seeing big inflows over the last couple of years, outflows from Samsung KODEX Secondary Battery ETF (305720) and Mirae Asset TIGER Secondary Cell ETF (305540) have started to pick up.
MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Friday
- There are no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the March rebalance. There are free float and capping changes though.
- One way turnover is estimated at 3.1% and will result in a one-way trade of US$19m. Flows are relatively small with no impact over 1x ADV on any stock.
- The June rebalance should have constituent changes with an increase in the number of stocks in the index universe.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Dai Nippon Printing, Melco, Hosokawa Micron,Tencent/Meituan, Ihara Science
- Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP) is a range trade. The juice is in the speed of the Corporate Buyback and how excited people get.
- With the renewal of the gaming concession in the bag and Melco Resorts (MLCO US) up 128% in the past six months, Melco (200 HK) has extracted ~HK$2.5bn from MLCO.
- Hosokawa Micron (6277 JP)‘s current PER of 9.9x ignores that net cash and securities holdings is about half of market cap. This is a cheap stock.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Invocare, Yashili, Pushpay Holdings, S.M.Entertainment
- There are 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: TPG’s non-binding Offer for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU).
- Key updates took place for Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP), and S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS).
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
- Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
- Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
- We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
