In today’s briefing:
- MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Afoot
- Yashili (1230 HK): Scheme Doc Out. 23 June Court Meeting
- Yashili (1230 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 June
- Flow Trading Opportunities Brought by the AI Rally: KRX Semicon Rebalancing in September
- End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2023
- Quiddity Final Thoughts for F100/250 June 23: Multiple High-Impact Changes Likely
- Mason Group (273 HK): Halted Pursuant To Takeover’s Code
- SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Should Be Two Changes in June
- (Mostly) Asia M&A, May 2023: Allkem / Livent, InvoCare, Golden Eagle, Yita Coal, Shinsei Bank
- Hanjin Kal: Fight For Control Amid FTC Regulatory Concerns of Korean Air & Asiana Airlines Merger
MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Afoot
- The review period for the June rebalance ended on 31 May. Announcement of the changes will be made on 9 June with implementation at the close on 16 June.
- There could be 3 or 4 A-share additions due to their inclusion in Northbound Stock Connect. That in turn expands the index universe and could result in 2-3 deletions.
- If there are 4 adds and 2 deletes at the June rebalance, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance will be 13.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$81m.
Yashili (1230 HK): Scheme Doc Out. 23 June Court Meeting
- At long last, Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) has dispatched the Scheme Document.
- The Court Meeting and EGM will be held on the 23 June. The IFA says the Offer is fair. At a ~160% premium to undisturbed, it certainly is.
- Assuming the transaction gets up, payment will occur on or before the 13 July.
Yashili (1230 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 June
- The Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 23 June. The IFA considers the HK$1.20 per share offer to be fair and reasonable.
- Key conditions include approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake should be supportive.
- This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 13 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.7% and 15.3%, respectively.
Flow Trading Opportunities Brought by the AI Rally: KRX Semicon Rebalancing in September
- KRX Semicon has experienced a considerable increase in AUM due to the recent AI rally. Two ETFs tracking SEMICON have a combined AUM of ₩0.6T.
- The following five stocks are screened as potential additions: ITM Semiconductor, Hyundai Energy Solutions, TEMC, Fine Semitech, and AT Technology.
- While it may not be a major flow event, it still presents a trading opportunity worth considering, especially in September, which is relatively less eventful in terms of flows.
End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2023
- We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2023, among which 6 are in KOSPI and 39 are in KOSDAQ.
- These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market.
- Among these 45 stocks, the top five market cap stocks include Won Tech, Voronoi, Zinus, Bionote, and NanoTIM.
Quiddity Final Thoughts for F100/250 June 23: Multiple High-Impact Changes Likely
- In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s final predictions for index changes for the F100 and F250 indices for the June 2023 Rebalance.
- The index changes are likely to be confirmed after market close today.
- We expect one change for the F100 index and six changes for the F250 index.
Mason Group (273 HK): Halted Pursuant To Takeover’s Code
- Broker Mason Financial Holdings (273 HK) is suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
- Shares are down 95% from its June 2015 peak, and 54% since the onset of Covid. The company last turned a profit in 2018.
- The largest shareholder is the chairman of Shimao Group (813 HK).
SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Should Be Two Changes in June
- With the review period complete, we see Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) being added to the SET 50 Index in June.
- Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) is a certain deletion from the index while the second deletion will be determined on the criteria used for liquidity or on market cap.
- JMT Network Services (JMT TB) was deleted from the MSCI Thailand index yesterday and could be deleted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) next.
(Mostly) Asia M&A, May 2023: Allkem / Livent, InvoCare, Golden Eagle, Yita Coal, Shinsei Bank
- For the month of May, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$15bn.
- The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was 32%.
- This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.
Hanjin Kal: Fight For Control Amid FTC Regulatory Concerns of Korean Air & Asiana Airlines Merger
- There is a relatively high probability (70-80%+) that the FTCs in Europe and the United States will officially block the merger between Korean Air and Asiana Airlines in 2H 2023.
- This could result in the Korea Development Bank (KDB) selling its 10.58% stake in Hanjin KAL Corp which could result in a fight for the control of Hanjin Kal.
- Our NAV analysis of Hanjin Kal suggests NAV of 3.8 trillion won or implied target price of 57,259 won per share, representing 13% upside from current levels.
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