In today’s briefing:
- Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout
- Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November
- Target Cosmo AM&T as a Prime Candidate for KOSPI 200 Special Entry in December
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, CK Infra/Power Assets, Rakuten Bank, Haitong Int’l Sec
- (Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Thai Bev, Golden Agri, EcoPro Materials, Doosan Robotics, PCOMP
- Symbio (SYM AU): Aussie Broadband’s Superior Proposal
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: System Info, Keiyo, Invocare, Liontown, ENM, Toyo Const.
Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout
- The SBI Holdings (8473 JP) takeout of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was opportunistic – done at a price SBI Shinsei’s Board considered not reasonable. Until it changed its mind.
- I had thought appraisal rights a great trade. I also thought it a good trade to own the back end, but that involved one holder putting ¥55bn on the table.
- Activist Murakami-san’s S Grant Corporation has done that. It will own one share of 8 post-consolidation on Monday. They are now equal shareholders with the govt entities. Wow.
Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November
- Real estate consultant/developer/speculator Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Friday that it would move from TSE Growth to TSE Prime on 6 October.
- The stock was on the list of top potential candidates in TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023) (and has been for nearly a year). It’s a good list.
- This event leads to a TOPIX inclusion on 29 November. Analysis below.
Target Cosmo AM&T as a Prime Candidate for KOSPI 200 Special Entry in December
- The introduction of float market cap is anticipated to apply not only to sector-based screening for the KOSPI 200 but also to special entry considerations.
- Cosmo AM&T emerges as a direct beneficiary of this change. It currently ranks 52nd within the KOSPI, maintaining a tight gap with the borderline (50th).
- Once it enters the KOSPI 200, it will also become a part of KOSPI 200 IT. As a result, the estimated flow size is approximately ₩230B, about 6x ADTV.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, CK Infra/Power Assets, Rakuten Bank, Haitong Int’l Sec
- Tactically, it isn’t attractive owning Toshiba (6502 JP) at 1% spread. Expect it to trade wider. There is still a fair bit of stock to come down the pipe.
- Because of significant business overlap, CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) looks very similar to Power Assets Holdings (6 HK). And CKI is coming up cheap on my monitor versus PAH.
- There is less fundamental alpha to Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) than before and more “just keep it because it is going up“-ness to the trade.
(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp
- For the month of September 2023, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.
- The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was 37%. The average YTD is 35%.
- This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Thai Bev, Golden Agri, EcoPro Materials, Doosan Robotics, PCOMP
- There were a few rebalances implemented last week, notably the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and the NIFTY family of indices. Plus an ad hoc Philippines Stock Exchange PCOMP INDEX rebalance.
- Nickel Asia (NIKL PM) will replace UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PCOMP INDEX in a surprise move at the close on 3 October.
- There were outflows from iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ US), Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US) during the week.
Symbio (SYM AU): Aussie Broadband’s Superior Proposal
- Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)‘s indicative proposal from Aussie Broadband Pty Ltd (ABB AU) is A$2.36 + 0.192 ABB shares per SYM share, 10.6% premium to Superloop Ltd (SLC AU)’s offer.
- The Board has declared ABB’s offer as the superior proposal and granted exclusive due diligence until 20 October. The Board intends to recommend a binding ABB proposal.
- Superloop’s offer was the final offer in the absence of a superior proposal. If it chooses to enter a bidding war, Superloop will need a higher cash component.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: System Info, Keiyo, Invocare, Liontown, ENM, Toyo Const.
- I tally 46 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals this week: Bain’s Offer for System Information (3677 JP) and DCM’s for Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP). An Offer for Haitong International Securities (665 HK) appears imminent.
- Key updates took place for: Invocare Ltd (IVC AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), ENM Holdings (128 HK) and Toyo Construction (1890 JP),
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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