In today’s briefing:
- MSCI May 2023 QCIR: Potential Changes & Things to Watch as Review Period Commences
- Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Rebalance Gets Interestinger – Possible Fast Retailing Cap and Zozo Stretch
- StubWorld: Genting Berhad Is Cheap
- Genesis To Acquire St Barbara’s Flagship As Merger Cancelled
- Oishi Group (OISHI TB): IFA Recommends the THB59.00 Delisting Offer
- Quiddity Leaderboard for UK F100/250 June 23: 20+ Days to Buy for Top-Ranked F250 Potential ADDs
- Blackstone/Industrial REIT: Final Agreed Offer
MSCI May 2023 QCIR: Potential Changes & Things to Watch as Review Period Commences
- The review period for the price cutoff for the MSCI May Quarterly Comprehensive Index Review (QCIR) starts today. MSCI should choose a day from this week to compute market cap.
- The most changes (especially adds) are expected in mainland China following an expansion of the universe for inclusion of stocks in Northbound Stock Connect.
- There are stocks in India where there will be FIF changes triggering large flows and there are things to watch on some stocks in Korea and China.
Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Rebalance Gets Interestinger – Possible Fast Retailing Cap and Zozo Stretch
- With 3.5 months left in the dataset, the data is pretty close to settled. The interesting bits are elsewhere. There are three auto DELETEs and two auto ADDs. Maybe.
- One auto-ADD is Toshiba, which may have a deal on it. That leaves two to add for sector balance. That could be Nitori (9843 JP) and Zozo (3092 JP).
- Friday’s move on Fast Retailing brings in the issue of the new capping function. That would be a different US$2bn selldown. Lots of gory details here.
StubWorld: Genting Berhad Is Cheap
- Genting Bhd (GENT MK)‘s implied stub and the simple ratio (GENT / Genting Singapore (GENS SP)) are at multi-year lows.
- Preceding my comments on Genting are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Genesis To Acquire St Barbara’s Flagship As Merger Cancelled
- Gold miner St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)’s reverse merger with Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) always had a whiff of biting off more than they could chew. That’s now validated.
- St Barbara has confirmed it will sell its flagship Leonora gold project to Genesis for $600mn (in cash and GMD scrip). The reverse merger has been cancelled.
- Post transaction, St Barbara will hold up to ~19.5%, and be left with no debt and ~$197m in cash. Genesis will emerge with no debt, and ~$175mn cash (pre-transaction costs).
Oishi Group (OISHI TB): IFA Recommends the THB59.00 Delisting Offer
- The Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) IFA opines that shareholders approve Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s delisting tender offer of THB59.00 per share at the EGM on 3 May.
- The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and <10% rejection by total outstanding shares.
- The offer is attractive to the IFA’s fair value of THB53.48-56.42 per share. At last close and the end-July completion, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 8.1%, respectively.
Quiddity Leaderboard for UK F100/250 June 23: 20+ Days to Buy for Top-Ranked F250 Potential ADDs
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.
- Based on latest prices, there could be one change for F100 and four changes in F250 between now and the June 2023 Rebalance including Mediclinic International (MDC LN)‘s intra-review change.
- Many of the high-ranked F250 potential additions could have very high impact according to our estimates.
Blackstone/Industrial REIT: Final Agreed Offer
- Blackstone launches a recommended 168p/share cash offer (via a scheme of arrangement) for Industrials REIT, which needs funding to increase its portfolio (and scale) and lower its blended cost ratio.
- The asset class seems attractive in an economic upturn. The offers represents a 42% premium, 1.04x to latest reported NTA, 1.2x P/23e BVPS; 22.1x Fwd P/E (source IBES).
- The offer should succeed, although irrevocables are just 6.3% (plus 22.4% letters of intent). Spread is 0.89%/4.52% (gross/annualised). While not terribly exciting, I would be long, in case of sweetening.
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