In today’s briefing:
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE
- Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) : Zhongzhi Innolight, BYD, and Amperex
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, CSI500, STAR50, FnGuide Top10
- EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Central Banks Decide
- Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50: A Potential Basket Trade
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: US$2.8bn One-Way; Might Be Time for a Basket Trade
- Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 23: US$937mn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations
- Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Dec 23: One ADD and One DEL; Ninebot Could Underperform AIMA
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC
- Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) Banks, Real Estate, Telcos, and Big ETF Sales
Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE
- The Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) ratio looks more attractive as JPB climbs with other banks as the possibility of Offering-induced retail overhang increases.
- The ACCC has until 28 September 2023 to make its decision on Origin Energy (ORG AU). Expect ACCC to be supportive – they haven’t built a strong “against” case.
- There should be more for the Kenedix REIT complex on a fundamental basis, a future equity capital raise accretion basis, and because of significant net buying for index purposes.
Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) : Zhongzhi Innolight, BYD, and Amperex
- This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
- The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
- We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw RMB 15bn+ of net selling. That’s six weeks in a row of respectably large outflows.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, CSI500, STAR50, FnGuide Top10
- It was a busy Friday with a bunch of indices rebalancing at the close and big volumes trading on a lot of stocks.
- Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) had a good week with the stock rallying on Thursday and Friday on huge volumes amid expectations of upcoming passive buying.
- A quiet week for ETFs with mainland China ETFs seeing some outflows after the huge inflows over the last couple of months.
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Central Banks Decide
- Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
- Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
- We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50: A Potential Basket Trade
- The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
- The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
- In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELETEs in the December 2023 Rebalance.
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: US$2.8bn One-Way; Might Be Time for a Basket Trade
- CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.
- Our latest estimates show that the combined one-way flow for CSI 300 and CSI 500 could be around US$2.8bn.
Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 23: US$937mn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations
- SSE 50 and SSE180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange.
- In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the December 2023 Rebalance event.
- I currently expect 5 ADDs/DELETEs for the SSE 50 index 18 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 180 index. Some of these names are different from my previous expectations.
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Dec 23: One ADD and One DEL; Ninebot Could Underperform AIMA
- STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
- In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the December 2023 Rebalance event.
- I currently expect one ADD and one DEL for the STAR 50 index in December 2023.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC
- I tally 50 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Four new deals this week: Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU); Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ); Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP); and JMDC (4483 JP).
- Key updates took place for: Origin Energy (ORG AU), United Malt (UMG AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK), and T&K Toka (4636 JP).
Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) Banks, Real Estate, Telcos, and Big ETF Sales
- This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
- The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
- We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw RMB 15bn+ of net selling. That’s six weeks in a row of respectably large outflows.
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