In today’s briefing:
- JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Update (Updated Pro-Ration Range)
- NTT Docomo’s Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet
- Proposals, Sweetened Offers & Synergies
- CALB IPO Lock-Up – US$2.6bn Lockup Release but Mostly SOE Owned
JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Update (Updated Pro-Ration Range)
- When this was launched, it traded more a fair bit on the first day, but then more volume traded than I expected. This could mean a couple of things.
- Re-Reading the original doc leaves nuances. The change in management responsibilities this past summer make some holders less certain. It’s complicated.
- There have been several blocks traded, and a large short instantiated. And if one has a more conservative estimate at a higher top-end participation, the back end gets uglier.
NTT Docomo’s Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet
- Today, Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) and NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)‘s NTT Docomo announced a Capital and Business Alliance Agreement. It is a complicated deal.
- Monex GROUP will create a holdco which owns Monex Inc (the broker) and sell 51% to Docomo. Docomo will consolidate. Monex Group will own 49% as an equity method affiliate.
- Monex GROUP will then double its dividend, maybe buy back shares, and expects to grow as Docomo pushes and Monex invests. But what remains is a mixed bag.
Proposals, Sweetened Offers & Synergies
- The game is on with the sweetened offer from Lithia, valued at 35.4p/share (24.5p divi + stake in Pinewood). Pendragon PLC (PDG LN)‘s shares are trading just below, at 35.2p.
- It is now the turn of either Hedin or AutoNation to raise their offers. 32p/share seems a fair value for the standalone business. Synergies could be worth up to 10.54p/share.
- Assuming a bidder distributes 60% of synergies to Pendragon shareholders, a potential offer price of 38.3p/share, in cash, 8% above Lithia’s offer, could still be value enhancing.
CALB IPO Lock-Up – US$2.6bn Lockup Release but Mostly SOE Owned
- CALB Group (3931 HK) raised around US$1.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2022. The lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders will expire tomorrow.
- CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products in China.
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.
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