In today’s briefing:
- [JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason
- Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount
- KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup
- KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises
- KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 8 Changes a Side; Fadu Appears to Be a 4 Letter Word
- Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK): Third Listing A Charm? Not So Fast …
- EQD | Hang Seng (HSI) – Analysis of Option Strategies Recently Traded on HKEX
- Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote
[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason
- Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
- After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line.
- There’s a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.
Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount
- The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
- The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.
- Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain.
KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup
- KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Dec reshuffle looks set—official lineup drops post-close today.
- Passive flows for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 are estimated at 40T KRW and 3.5T KRW, based on typical flow sizes until the effective date.
- These predictions combine my sim results with reliable local intel. The accuracy’s solid enough to start pulling the trigger on trades.
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises
- There will be 4 additions and 5 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
- The 4 adds are exactly in line with our forecast but a couple of the deletions are surprises. Those two names were close deletes though.
- The are some large shorts on a few deletes and there could be covering over the next few weeks as borrows are recalled and as the stocks drop.
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 8 Changes a Side; Fadu Appears to Be a 4 Letter Word
- There will be 8 additions and 8 deletions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
- Most of the inclusions were forecast but there is a lot of variance among the list of deletions… index committee knows best!
- Fadu (440110 KS) was ignored for yet another rebalance, while Snh Inc (051980 KS) has also not been included in the index.
Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK): Third Listing A Charm? Not So Fast …
- Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK), a leading IoT cloud platform in China, was listed on the 18th March 2021 at US$21.00/ADS. The share price is currently down 92.5%.
- Tuya subsequently established a primary dual-listing in Hong Kong on the 5th July 2022, priced at HK$19.30/share. Those shares are down ~23%
- Temasek-Backed 65 Equity Partners has now acquired a 13% stake (equivalent to ~6.2% of the voting rights) in Tuya, with a view to establishing a secondary listing on the SGX.
EQD | Hang Seng (HSI) – Analysis of Option Strategies Recently Traded on HKEX
- Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) implied volatility fell across the term structure and skew. The skew displays a smile favoring specific option strategies.
- The most traded HKEX traded tailor-made combinations are Call and Put Spreads. Straddles, Strangles and Butterflies have become less popular most recently.
- While three quarters of all strategies take a long volatility position, there is a balance in bullish, bearish, and market-neutral strategies.
Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote
- Back on the 9th October, Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reached an agreement to buy Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU/ALTM US) for US$5.85/share (~A$8.70/share), a ~90% premium to undisturbed.
- The proxy statement is now out, with a Scheme Meeting scheduled for 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025. The long stop is the 9th October 2025.
- Trading wide-ish at a gross spread of 11.9%, reflecting the timing to secure regulatory approvals – notably from China – as opposed the Offer Price being viewed as opportunistic.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
