In today’s briefing:
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, ASX, STAR50, China 50, NIFTY100, SMM SP, Pertamina Geo IPO
- Halcyon Agri: MGO Triggered. Currency Translation Cuts Offer Price
- EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanematsu Elect/Sustech, Toshiba, Pushpay, Sembcorp, O2Micro
- Inter & Co (INTR US) – No More StoneCo Stake Overhang, but the Fundamental Outlook Remains Tough
- Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Bendigo/Bank of Queensland, Renault/Nissan, Keisei/Oriental Land
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, ASX, STAR50, China 50, NIFTY100, SMM SP, Pertamina Geo IPO
- There were some review cutoffs last week as well as the implementation of the PCOMP INDEX, IDX 30 Index, LQ 45 Index and IDX 80 Index.
- The big event in the coming week is the announcement of the MSCI February QCIR on Friday morning Asia time with implementation at the close of trading on 28 February.
- Inflows to iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG US) continue while IShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV US) continues to see redemptions.
Halcyon Agri: MGO Triggered. Currency Translation Cuts Offer Price
- As expected, all conditions to the Sinochem/China Hainan Rubber (601118 CH) SPA have now been satisfied, triggering a mandatory Offer for Halcyon Agri (HACL SP), conditional on a 50% tendering.
- Hainan Rubber holds 36%. Sinochem has provided an undertaking notto tender its remaining 29.2% stake. Hainan needs 14% out of 34.8% available – or ~40% to tender.
- The takeaway disappointment is the Offer Price of S$0.413/share, down from S$0.435 at the time of the initial announcement last November, due to SGD weakness.
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
- Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
- Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
- We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanematsu Elect/Sustech, Toshiba, Pushpay, Sembcorp, O2Micro
- There are 45 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: tender offers for Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP), Kanematsu Sustech (7961 JP), Nissin Electric (6641 JP), and Techno Associe (8249 JP).
- Key updates took place for: Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), and O2Micro International (OIIM US).
Inter & Co (INTR US) – No More StoneCo Stake Overhang, but the Fundamental Outlook Remains Tough
- StoneCo has disposed of its remaining 4.2% stake in Inter &Co, slamming the door shut on plans for a leading Brazilian neobank-paytech partnership originally announced in May 2021
- Stone acquired 5% of Inter for BRL2.5bn in June 2021; the extent of the fintech market malaise means that currently BRL2.5bn (c USD500m) would buy close to 50% of Inter
- This StoneCo stake disposal at least removes the Inter shares’ overhang risk; yet despite this technical relief, we reiterate that Inter’s fundamental outlook remains a challenging one
Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Bendigo/Bank of Queensland, Renault/Nissan, Keisei/Oriental Land
- Stay away from Adani Enterprises (ADE IN). It has wrapped itself in a cloak of nationalistic righteous indignation. Do not buy the dip. Or even a larger one.
- The timing of a Bendigo And Adelaide Bank (BEN AU) and Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) merger makes a lot of sense right now.
- This Renault SA (RNO FP) / Nissan Motor (7201 JP)‘s press release and “agreement”, as-is, is a Nothingburger.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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